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Using NASA Remote Sensing and Models to Advance Integrated Assessments of Coupled Human-Forest Dynamics for North America
Project Funding: 2010 - 2013
NRA: 2009 NASA: Terrestrial Ecology
Funded by NASA
Abstract:Human activity has significantly altered basic element cycles, the water cycle, and the land surface at local to planetary scales, and these alterations are influencing the global environment, including the Earth's climate system. Population and the demand for energy, food, fiber, and water will increase in the future, placing even greater pressure on the Earth system. Planning for the next century requires accurate models of the Earth system, including human activity. Recent studies with integrated assessment models models linking human and natural systems at a global scale highlight the importance of terrestrial systems in climate stabilization efforts. We propose to link remote sensing, terrestrial ecosystem modeling, and integrated assessment modeling to improve assessments of carbon dynamics, land-use change, and climate mitigation policies. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. In particular, we address the following three major science questions: (1) How can remote sensing and mechanistic ecosystem models be used to improve integrated assessments involving coupled human-forest dynamics? (2) What are the opportunities for land-use strategies such as afforestation or woody bioenergy crop production to contribute to stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations? (3) What are the linked remote sensing/ecosystem modeling requirements for improving integrated assessments of climate mitigation strategies? To answer these questions, we will build upon and integrate our teams leadership experience and ongoing efforts in three key areas: Lidar-initialized Ecosystem Demography (ED) modeling, MiniCAM integrated assessment modeling, and global land- use modeling. This work will yield new and innovative coupled models that will be used to mechanistically simulate the interactive effects of ecosystem dynamics and human land-use in the context of climate change and the development of strategies to mitigate it.
Publications:
Flanagan, S., Hurtt, G., Fisk, J., Sahajpal, R., Hansen, M., Dolan, K., Sullivan, J., Zhao, M. 2016. Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change. Climate. 4(1), 2. DOI: 10.3390/cli4010002
Fisk, J. (2015) Net Effects of Disturbance: Spatial, Temporal, and Societal Dimensions of Forest Disturbance and Recovery on Terrestrial Carbon Balance. Ph.D. Thesis. UNH.
Huntzinger, D. N., Schwalm, C., Michalak, A. M., Schaefer, K., King, A. W., Wei, Y., Jacobson, A., Liu, S., Cook, R. B., Post, W. M., Berthier, G., Hayes, D., Huang, M., Ito, A., Lei, H., Lu, C., Mao, J., Peng, C. H., Peng, S., Poulter, B., Riccuito, D., Shi, X., Tian, H., Wang, W., Zeng, N., Zhao, F., Zhu, Q. 2013. The North American Carbon Program Multi-Scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project - Part 1: Overview and experimental design. Geoscientific Model Development. 6(6), 2121-2133. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-2121-2013
Dang, X., Lai, C., Hollinger, D. Y., Schauer, A. J., Xiao, J., Munger, J. W., Owensby, C., Ehleringer, J. R. 2011. Combining tower mixing ratio and community model data to estimate regional-scale net ecosystem carbon exchange by boundary layer inversion over four flux towers in the United States. Journal of Geophysical Research. 116(G3). DOI: 10.1029/2010JG001554
Hall, F. G., Bergen, K., Blair, J. B., Dubayah, R., Houghton, R., Hurtt, G., Kellndorfer, J., Lefsky, M., Ranson, J., Saatchi, S., Shugart, H. H., Wickland, D. 2011. Characterizing 3D vegetation structure from space: Mission requirements. Remote Sensing of Environment. 115(11), 2753-2775. DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2011.01.024
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Frolking, S., Betts, R. A., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Fisk, J. P., Hibbard, K., Houghton, R. A., Janetos, A., Jones, C. D., Kindermann, G., Kinoshita, T., Klein Goldewijk, K., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Thomson, A., Thornton, P., van Vuuren, D. P., Wang, Y. P. 2011. Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Climatic Change. 109(1-2), 117-161. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2
Hurtt, G. C., Fisk, J., Thomas, R. Q., Dubayah, R., Moorcroft, P. R., Shugart, H. H. 2010. Linking models and data on vegetation structure. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 115(G2). DOI: 10.1029/2009JG000937
Gelfand, I., Sahajpal, R., Zhang, X., Izaurralde, R. C., Gross, K. L., Robertson, G. P. 2013. Sustainable bioenergy production from marginal lands in the US Midwest. Nature. 493(7433), 514-517. DOI: 10.1038/nature11811
Le Page, Y., Hurtt, G., Thomson, A. M., Bond-Lamberty, B., Patel, P., Wise, M., Calvin, K., Kyle, P., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Janetos, A. 2013. Sensitivity of climate mitigation strategies to natural disturbances. Environmental Research Letters. 8(1), 015018. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015018
Le Page, Y., Morton, D., Bond-Lamberty, B., Pereira, J. M. C., Hurtt, G. 2015. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers. Biogeosciences. 12(3), 887-903. DOI: 10.5194/bg-12-887-2015
Sahajpal, R. (2014) Assessing Cellulosic Biofuel Feedstock Production Across a Gradient of Agricultural Management Systems in the US Midwest. Ph.D. Thesis, UMD. DRUM DOI: DOI: 10.13016/M2B60T
Sahajpal, R., Zhang, X., Izaurralde, R. C., Gelfand, I., Hurtt, G. C. 2014. Identifying representative crop rotation patterns and grassland loss in the US Western Corn Belt. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture. 108, 173-182. DOI: 10.1016/j.compag.2014.08.005
Sun, G., Caldwell, P., Noormets, A., McNulty, S. G., Cohen, E., Moore Myers, J., Domec, J., Treasure, E., Mu, Q., Xiao, J., John, R., Chen, J. 2011. Upscaling key ecosystem functions across the conterminous United States by a water-centric ecosystem model. Journal of Geophysical Research. 116. DOI: 10.1029/2010JG001573
Xiao, J., Zhuang, Q., Baldocchi, D. D., Law, B. E., Richardson, A. D., Chen, J., Oren, R., Starr, G., Noormets, A., Ma, S., Verma, S. B., Wharton, S., Wofsy, S. C., Bolstad, P. V., Burns, S. P., Cook, D. R., Curtis, P. S., Drake, B. G., Falk, M., Fischer, M. L., Foster, D. R., Gu, L., Hadley, J. L., Hollinger, D. Y., Katul, G. G., Litvak, M., Martin, T. A., Matamala, R., McNulty, S., Meyers, T. P., Monson, R. K., Munger, J. W., Oechel, W. C., Paw U, K. T., Schmid, H. P., Scott, R. L., Sun, G., Suyker, A. E., Torn, M. S. 2008. Estimation of net ecosystem carbon exchange for the conterminous United States by combining MODIS and AmeriFlux data. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 148(11), 1827-1847. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.06.015
Xiao, J., Chen, J., Davis, K. J., Reichstein, M. 2012. Advances in upscaling of eddy covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 117(G1). DOI: 10.1029/2011JG001889
Xiao, J., Ollinger, S. V., Frolking, S., Hurtt, G. C., Hollinger, D. Y., Davis, K. J., Pan, Y., Zhang, X., Deng, F., Chen, J., Baldocchi, D. D., Law, B. E., Arain, M. A., Desai, A. R., Richardson, A. D., Sun, G., Amiro, B., Margolis, H., Gu, L., Scott, R. L., Blanken, P. D., Suyker, A. E. 2014. Data-driven diagnostics of terrestrial carbon dynamics over North America. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 197, 142-157. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.06.013
2015 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Poster(s)
2013 NASA Terrestrial Ecology Science Team Meeting Poster(s)
2011 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Poster(s)
2010 NASA Terrestrial Ecology Science Team Meeting Poster(s)
More details may be found in the following project profile(s):