iED: Linking ecological and socio-economic models for improved integrated assessments of climate mitigation and adaptation

George Hurtt, UMD, gchurtt@umd.edu (Presenter)
Jae Edmonds, JGCRI, jae@pnl.gov
Justin Fisk, UMD, fisk@umd.edu
Ben Bond-Lamberty, JGCRI, bondlamberty@pnl.gov
Yannick LePage, JGCRI, yannick.lepage@pnl.gov
Louise Chini, UMD, lchini@umd.edu
Allison Thomson, JGCRI, allison.thomson@pnl.gov
Ralph Dubayah, UMD, dubayah@umd.edu
Anthony Janetos, JGCRI, anthony.janetos@pnl.gov
Steve Frolking, UNH, steve.frolking@unh.edu
Doug Morton, GSFC, douglas.morton@nasa.gov
Jeff Chambers, LBL, jchambers@lbl.gov

Human activity has significantly altered basic element cycles, the water cycle, and the land surface at local to planetary scales, and these alterations are influencing the global environment, including the Earth's climate system. Population and the demand for energy, food, fiber, and water will increase in the future, placing even greater pressure on the Earth system. Planning for the next century requires accurate models of the Earth system, including human activity. Recent studies with integrated assessment models, models linking human and natural systems at a global scale, highlight the importance of terrestrial ecosystems systems/carbon in future climate stabilization efforts. These systems, and their carbon balance, are dynamic and heterogeneous and fundamentally linked to cycles of disturbance and recovery. Moreover, potentially altered future disturbance rates may impact the magnitude of terrestrial carbon stocks and fluxes, and thus may alter the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic value of ecosystem carbon storage, and thus future land-use patterns. Here we describe the development of a fully-integrated model that links advanced ecological and socio-economic models for improved integrated assessments of climate mitigation and adaptation options. The model combines the regional integrated assessment algorithms of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), with the climate-sensitive ecosystem and carbon modeling in the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, and the land-use mapping algorithms of the Global Land-use Model (GLM). Utilizing advanced remote sensing, iED will be used to advance understanding of the coupled human-natural system at a range of scales and address such questions as: What are the opportunities for land-use strategies such as afforestation or biofuels to contribute to atmospheric stabilization; How could potentially altered future forest disturbance rates affect climate mitigation strategies; What are the linked remote sensing/ecosystem modeling requirements for improving integrated assessments of climate change?

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Global Change Impact & Vulnerability   (Tue 11:30 AM)

Associated Project(s): 

• Hurtt, George: Modeling the Impacts of Major Forest Disturbances on the Earth's Coupled Carbon-Climate System, and the Capacity of Forests to Meet Future Demands for Wood, Fuel, and Fiber ...details
• Hurtt, George: Using NASA Remote Sensing and Models to Advance Integrated Assessments of Coupled Human-Forest Dynamics for North America ...details

Poster Location ID: 214