The integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) model: Linking ecological and socio-economic models for improved integrated assessments of climate mitigation

Justin P Fisk, University of Maryland, fisk@umd.edu (Presenter)
George Hurtt, University of Maryland, gchurtt@umd.edu
Yannick le Page, JGCRI, yannick.lepage@pnnl.gov
Pralit Patel, JGCRI, pralit.patel@pnnl.gov

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Many proposed climate mitigation strategies derived using these models rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink to limit concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This research aims to increase the process detail, and reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within these frameworks by replacing the relatively simplified representation terrestrial carbon with state-of-the-art submodels of spatial land-use patterns and terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. Here we introduce iED, an new model fully linking the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), the Global Land-use Model (GLM), and the Ecosystem Demography model (ED). The major innovative feature is a consistent, process-based, representation of ecosystem carbon cycling throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. Comparison of results from iED to previous studies suggest a high sensitivity of scenario outcomes to dynamic vegetation model projections. In particular, substantially lower net forest growth rates and sequestration potential in process based predictions reduce the potential value of carbon stored in forests. This in turn propagates to key integrated assessment projections including the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic costs of mitigation policies, future land-use patterns, food prices and energy technology. The coupled framework will facilitate future research to study the societal implications of climate-driven changes to forest growth and disturbance processes in a mechanistic system.

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Theme 4: Human influence on global ecosystems   (Mon 4:30 PM)

Associated Project(s): 

• Hurtt, George: Modeling the impacts of major forest disturbances on the Earth's coupled carbon-climate system, and the capacity of forests to meet future demands for wood, fuel, and fiber ...details
• Hurtt, George: Using NASA Remote Sensing and Models to Advance Integrated Assessments of Coupled Human-Forest Dynamics for North America ...details

Poster Location ID: 60