Project Funding: 2010 - 2014

NRA: 2009 NASA: Terrestrial Ecology   

Funded by NASA

Abstract:
Background: Permafrost contains a large amount of frozen organic matter, which will begin to decay as permafrost thaws in the future. The resulting increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane will amplifying the climate warming rate, creating a positive permafrost carbon feedback on climate. Little is known about the magnitude and dynamics of the permafrost carbon feedback. None of the climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report account for the permafrost carbon feedback. Abstract: Our objective is to quantify uncertainty in the permafrost carbon feedback by exploring permafrost thermodynamics and carbon balance in permafrost regions at high northern latitudes. We will explore uncertainties in the magnitude and timing of the permafrost carbon feedback associated with the 1) assumed warming scenario, 2) model structure and parameters, 3) input weather, 4) assumed permafrost carbon distribution, and 5) methane emissions. We will run a series of projections out to 2200 using the Simple Biosphere/Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (SiBCASA) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) wetland model, varying assumed inputs and parameter values. A statistical analysis of this ensemble will provide quantified measures of uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the permafrost carbon feedback. Significance: Our project will quantify a key uncertainty in long-term climate projections: the ultimate fate of organic matter currently frozen in permafrost and the potential strength of the permafrost carbon feedback.

Publications:

Hope, C., Schaefer, K. 2015. Economic impacts of carbon dioxide and methane released from thawing permafrost. Nature Climate Change. 6(1), 56-59. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2807

Koven, C. D., Schuur, E. A. G., Schadel, C., Bohn, T. J., Burke, E. J., Chen, G., Chen, X., Ciais, P., Grosse, G., Harden, J. W., Hayes, D. J., Hugelius, G., Jafarov, E. E., Krinner, G., Kuhry, P., Lawrence, D. M., MacDougall, A. H., Marchenko, S. S., McGuire, A. D., Natali, S. M., Nicolsky, D. J., Olefeldt, D., Peng, S., Romanovsky, V. E., Schaefer, K. M., Strauss, J., Treat, C. C., Turetsky, M. 2015. A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 373(2054), 20140423. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0423

Schuster, P. F., Schaefer, K. M., Aiken, G. R., Antweiler, R. C., Dewild, J. F., Gryziec, J. D., Gusmeroli, A., Hugelius, G., Jafarov, E., Krabbenhoft, D. P., Liu, L., Herman-Mercer, N., Mu, C., Roth, D. A., Schaefer, T., Striegl, R. G., Wickland, K. P., Zhang, T. 2018. Permafrost Stores a Globally Significant Amount of Mercury. Geophysical Research Letters. 45(3), 1463-1471. DOI: 10.1002/2017GL075571

Schuur, E. A. G., McGuire, A. D., Schadel, C., Grosse, G., Harden, J. W., Hayes, D. J., Hugelius, G., Koven, C. D., Kuhry, P., Lawrence, D. M., Natali, S. M., Olefeldt, D., Romanovsky, V. E., Schaefer, K., Turetsky, M. R., Treat, C. C., Vonk, J. E. 2015. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback. Nature. 520(7546), 171-179. DOI: 10.1038/nature14338

Schaefer, K., Zhang, T., Slater, A. G., Lu, L., Etringer, A., Baker, I. 2009. Improving simulated soil temperatures and soil freeze/thaw at high-latitude regions in the Simple Biosphere/Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model. Journal of Geophysical Research. 114(F2). DOI: 10.1029/2008JF001125

Schuur, E. A. G., Abbott, B. W., Bowden, W. B., Brovkin, V., Camill, P., Canadell, J. G., Chanton, J. P., Chapin, F. S., Christensen, T. R., Ciais, P., Crosby, B. T., Czimczik, C. I., Grosse, G., Harden, J., Hayes, D. J., Hugelius, G., Jastrow, J. D., Jones, J. B., Kleinen, T., Koven, C. D., Krinner, G., Kuhry, P., Lawrence, D. M., McGuire, A. D., Natali, S. M., O'Donnell, J. A., Ping, C. L., Riley, W. J., Rinke, A., Romanovsky, V. E., Sannel, A. B. K., Schadel, C., Schaefer, K., Sky, J., Subin, Z. M., Tarnocai, C., Turetsky, M. R., Waldrop, M. P., Walter Anthony, K. M., Wickland, K. P., Wilson, C. J., Zimov, S. A. 2013. Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change. Climatic Change. 119(2), 359-374. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7

Mishra, U., Jastrow, J. D., Matamala, R., Hugelius, G., Koven, C. D., Harden, J. W., Ping, C. L., Michaelson, G. J., Fan, Z., Miller, R. M., McGuire, A. D., Tarnocai, C., Kuhry, P., Riley, W. J., Schaefer, K., Schuur, E. A. G., Jorgenson, M. T., Hinzman, L. D. 2013. Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges. Environmental Research Letters. 8(3), 035020. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035020

Schaefer, K, H Lantuit, VE Romanovsky, EAG Schuur (2012), Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost, United Nations Environment Programme Special Report, ISBN: 978-92-807-3308-2, Job Number: DEW/1621/NA

DeConto, R. M., Galeotti, S., Pagani, M., Tracy, D., Schaefer, K., Zhang, T., Pollard, D., Beerling, D. J. 2012. Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost. Nature. 484(7392), 87-91. DOI: 10.1038/nature10929

Liu, L., Schaefer, K., Zhang, T., Wahr, J. 2012. Estimating 1992-2000 average active layer thickness on the Alaskan North Slope from remotely sensed surface subsidence. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface. 117(F1). DOI: 10.1029/2011JF002041

Schuur, E. A. G., Abbott, B. 2011. High risk of permafrost thaw. Nature. 480(7375), 32-33. DOI: 10.1038/480032a

SCHAEFER, K., ZHANG, T., BRUHWILER, L., BARRETT, A. P. 2011. Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming. Tellus B. 63(2), 165-180. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x

2013 NASA Terrestrial Ecology Science Team Meeting Poster(s)

• Contribution of Projected Temperature Increases due to the Permafrost Carbon Feedback   --   (Kevin M Schaefer, Christopher A Williams, Christopher R Schwalm, Zhuxiao Li)   [abstract]

2011 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Poster(s)

• Can we avoid the permafrost carbon tipping point?   --   (Kevin M. Schaefer, Tingjun Zhang, Lori Bruhwiler, Andrew Barrett, Zhuxiao Li)   [abstract]

2010 NASA Terrestrial Ecology Science Team Meeting Poster(s)

• Fundamental Dynamics of the Permafrost Carbon Feedback   --   (Kevin Schaefer, Tingjun Zhang, Lori Bruhwiler, Andrew Barrett)   [abstract]   [poster]

More details may be found in the following project profile(s):

• NASA Terrestrial Ecology (TE) Project Profile
• North American Carbon Program (NACP) Project Profile