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Reducing Uncertainty in Carbon Cycle Science of North America: A Synthesis Program Across United States and Mexico

Vargas, Rodrigo: University of Delaware (Project Lead)
Brunsell, Nate: University of Kansas (Co-Investigator)
Hayes, Daniel: University of Maine (Co-Investigator)
Guevara, Mario: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) (Participant)
Villarreal, Samuel: University of Delaware (Student-Graduate)

Project Funding: 2014 - 2017

NRA: 2013 NASA: Carbon Cycle Science   

Funded by USDA

Abstract:
Research under the North American Carbon Program (NACP) has enhanced our scientific understanding of North America’s carbon cycle dynamics. Scientists and policymakers both recognize the importance of an integrated view in order to advance carbon cycle science across North America, but studies outside the United States and Canada are often left behind. The time is ripe for synthesis activities that include information about carbon cycle science in Mexico and move towards an integrated view of North America’s carbon cycle. We propose to conduct a broad-scale analysis of carbon cycle science and data across the United States (U.S.) and Mexico by synthesizing new existing datasets and models in a consistent and comprehensive analysis framework. Specifically, the research will be directed towards improving our understanding of forest and soil carbon dynamics, and the validation of terrestrial ecosystem models. The specific objectives are: a) Harmonize available datasets describing the key components of the carbon cycle in Mexico, and produce national-scale information in a standardize way to be comparable to datasets available in the U.S.; b) Develop the synthesis approaches for scaling these new Mexican datasets using methodology consistent with and comparable to available U.S. datasets; c) Develop a consistent benchmarking framework between available datasets and state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere and atmospheric inverse modeling and remote sensing approaches to identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps. This research will be unique because datasets on soil carbon, forest inventory, evapotranspiration, and net ecosystem exchange across Mexico have not been widely available for North American syntheses and validation studies. This proposal will build on use existing information provided by remote sensing platforms (e.g., MODIS) and networks such as AmeriFlux, International Soil Carbon Network, NACP, and networks in Mexico (e.g., MexFlux, Mexican Carbon Program). This proposal will result in new standardized datasets of Mexican carbon cycle science (e.g., soil carbon, forest biomass, NEE) available to the scientific community, and synthesis research activities that will contribute to a broader overall understanding of carbon cycle across North America. Data will be analyzed for synthesis activities using different analytical tools such as parametric statistics for model intercomparison, extreme values distribution theory, information theory to quantify uncertainty, artificial neural networks-self organizing maps to examine covariance between variables, and time series analysis to define temporal patterns in the observations and data-model agreement. This proposal is scientifically and societally important because environmental problems and ecological understandings are not delineated within specific sociopolitical or economic boundaries. This proposal directly addresses the Carbon Cycle Science themes of carbon cycle science synthesis research (theme 6 solicited by NASA, USDA, DOE), and the topic of belowground carbon processes and soil carbon (theme 3 solicited by USDA, DOE). Indirectly it addresses the issue of carbon research in critical regions, specifically the tropics as a large region of Mexico falls within these latitudes (theme 1 solicited by NASA, DOE, USDA). This research addresses cross-cutting research activities (Section 3.7 in NNH13ZDA001N-CARBON call) by integrating human activities, improved observations, modeling, and coordinating with other projects. This last issue is possible because research from this proposal directly contributes towards the goals of major USGCRP activities including the NACP, and the goals of networks such as AmeriFlux, NEON, CarboNA, MexFlux, and the International Soil Carbon Network.

Publications:

Barba, J., Cueva, A., Bahn, M., Barron-Gafford, G. A., Bond-Lamberty, B., Hanson, P. J., Jaimes, A., Kulmala, L., Pumpanen, J., Scott, R. L., Wohlfahrt, G., Vargas, R. 2018. Comparing ecosystem and soil respiration: Review and key challenges of tower-based and soil measurements. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 249, 434-443. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.10.028

Biederman, J. A., Scott, R. L., Bell, T. W., Bowling, D. R., Dore, S., Garatuza-Payan, J., Kolb, T. E., Krishnan, P., Krofcheck, D. J., Litvak, M. E., Maurer, G. E., Meyers, T. P., Oechel, W. C., Papuga, S. A., Ponce-Campos, G. E., Rodriguez, J. C., Smith, W. K., Vargas, R., Watts, C. J., Yepez, E. A., Goulden, M. L. 2017. CO 2 exchange and evapotranspiration across dryland ecosystems of southwestern North America. Global Change Biology. 23(10), 4204-4221. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13686

Biederman, J. A., Scott, R. L., Goulden, M. L., Vargas, R., Litvak, M. E., Kolb, T. E., Yepez, E. A., Oechel, W. C., Blanken, P. D., Bell, T. W., Garatuza-Payan, J., Maurer, G. E., Dore, S., Burns, S. P. 2016. Terrestrial carbon balance in a drier world: the effects of water availability in southwestern North America. Global Change Biology. 22(5), 1867-1879. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13222

Bond-Lamberty, B., Bailey, V. L., Chen, M., Gough, C. M., Vargas, R. 2018. Globally rising soil heterotrophic respiration over recent decades. Nature. 560(7716), 80-83. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0358-x

Bond-Lamberty, B., Epron, D., Harden, J., Harmon, M. E., Hoffman, F., Kumar, J., David McGuire, A., Vargas, R. 2016. Estimating heterotrophic respiration at large scales: challenges, approaches, and next steps. Ecosphere. 7(6). DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1380

Cueva, A., Bullock, S. H., Lopez-Reyes, E., Vargas, R. 2017. Potential bias of daily soil CO2 efflux estimates due to sampling time. Scientific Reports. 7(1). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-11849-y

FAO and ITPS (2015) Status of the World’s Soil Resources (SWSR) – Main Report. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and Intergovernmental Technical Panel on Soils, Rome, Italy. Contributing author for Chapter 12 entitled “Regional assessment of soil changes in Latin America and the Caribbean”. ISBN: 978-92-5-109004-6 http://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/c6814873-efc3-41db-b7d3-2081a10ede50/

Hengl, T., Mendes de Jesus, J., Heuvelink, G. B. M., Ruiperez Gonzalez, M., Kilibarda, M., Blagotic, A., Shangguan, W., Wright, M. N., Geng, X., Bauer-Marschallinger, B., Guevara, M. A., Vargas, R., MacMillan, R. A., Batjes, N. H., Leenaars, J. G. B., Ribeiro, E., Wheeler, I., Mantel, S., Kempen, B. 2017. SoilGrids250m: Global gridded soil information based on machine learning. PLOS ONE. 12(2), e0169748. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169748

Hinojo-Hinojo, C., Castellanos, A. E., Llano-Sotelo, J., Penuelas, J., Vargas, R., Romo-Leon, J. R. 2018. High Vcmax, Jmax and photosynthetic rates of Sonoran Desert species: Using nitrogen and specific leaf area traits as predictors in biochemical models. Journal of Arid Environments. 156, 1-8. DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2018.04.006

Petrie, M. D., Brunsell, N. A., Vargas, R., Collins, S. L., Flanagan, L. B., Hanan, N. P., Litvak, M. E., Suyker, A. E. 2016. The sensitivity of carbon exchanges in Great Plains grasslands to precipitation variability. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 121(2), 280-294. DOI: 10.1002/2015JG003205

Phillips, C. L., Bond-Lamberty, B., Desai, A. R., Lavoie, M., Risk, D., Tang, J., Todd-Brown, K., Vargas, R. 2016. The value of soil respiration measurements for interpreting and modeling terrestrial carbon cycling. Plant and Soil. 413(1-2), 1-25. DOI: 10.1007/s11104-016-3084-x

Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático (PICC) (2015) Reporte Mexicano de Cambio Climático. Grupo I: Bases Científicas, Modelos y Modelación. (Mexican Report on Climate Change. Group I: Scientific Bases, Models and Modeling). Contributing author for the 7th chapter entitled “Ciclos Biogeoquímicos” (Biogeochemical cycles). ISBN: 978-607-02-7522-7. http://www.pincc.unam.mx/libro_reportemex/RMCC_vol1.pdf

Reimer, J. J., Cueva, A., Gaxiola-Castro, G., Lara-Lara, R., Vargas, R. 2016. Random error analysis of marine xCO2 measurements in a coastal upwelling region. Progress in Oceanography. 143, 1-12. DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2016.02.003

Vargas, R., Alcaraz-Segura, D., Birdsey, R., Brunsell, N. A., Cruz-Gaistardo, C. O., de Jong, B., Etchevers, J., Guevara, M., Hayes, D. J., Johnson, K., Loescher, H. W., Paz, F., Ryu, Y., Sanchez-Mejia, Z., Toledo-Gutierrez, K. P. 2017. Enhancing interoperability to facilitate implementation of REDD+: case study of Mexico. Carbon Management. 8(1), 57-65. DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2017.1285177

Vargas, R., Alin, S., Shrestha, G. 2015. Integrating Carbon Cycle Research into Decision-Making Processes. Eos. 96. DOI: 10.1029/2015EO037893

Villarreal, S., Guevara, M., Alcaraz-Segura, D., Brunsell, N. A., Hayes, D., Loescher, H. W., Vargas, R. 2018. Ecosystem functional diversity and the representativeness of environmental networks across the conterminous United States. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 262, 423-433. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.07.016

Villarreal, S., Vargas, R., Yepez, E. A., Acosta, J. S., Castro, A., Escoto-Rodriguez, M., Lopez, E., Martinez-Osuna, J., Rodriguez, J. C., Smith, S. V., Vivoni, E. R., Watts, C. J. 2016. Contrasting precipitation seasonality influences evapotranspiration dynamics in water-limited shrublands. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 121(2), 494-508. DOI: 10.1002/2015JG003169

Wei, X., Hayes, D. J., Fraver, S., Chen, G. 2018. Global Pyrogenic Carbon Production During Recent Decades Has Created the Potential for a Large, Long-Term Sink of Atmospheric CO 2. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 123(12), 3682-3696. DOI: 10.1029/2018JG004490

Zhang, Q., Phillips, R. P., Manzoni, S., Scott, R. L., Oishi, A. C., Finzi, A., Daly, E., Vargas, R., Novick, K. A. 2018. Changes in photosynthesis and soil moisture drive the seasonal soil respiration-temperature hysteresis relationship. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 259, 184-195. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.05.005

Reimer, J. J., Vargas, R., Rivas, D., Gaxiola-Castro, G., Hernandez-Ayon, J. M., Lara-Lara, R. 2015. Sea Surface Temperature Influence on Terrestrial Gross Primary Production along the Southern California Current. PLOS ONE. 10(4), e0125177. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0125177


More details may be found in the following project profile(s):