Waring, Richard (Dick): Oregon State University (Project Lead)
Project Funding:
2009 - 2012
NRA: 2008 NASA: Earth Science Applications Feasibility Studies
Funded by NASA
Abstract:
Climate affects the geographic distribution of species. In the Pacific Northwest Region, the snowpack has been significantly reduced and the summer drought period extended since the 1970s. As a result, forests have become more susceptible to outbreaks of insects, diseases, and fire. These disturbances are particularly acute on lands set aside as parks, wilderness areas, and conservation reserves. We propose to evaluate with a process-based tree growth model how changes from historical, current, and predicted future climatic conditions might affect the ability of a select group of species to produce defenses against attack by native pests. This feasibility study has three components. We will first test the model’s ability to predict current geographical distribution patterns, based on observations recorded on U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis survey plots. Next, we will evaluate the model’s ability to delineate areas where species have become more susceptible to insect and disease attack since the 1970s, using Landsat and MODIS imagery to confirm outbreaks. Finally, we will incorporate climatic projections from Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM at decadal intervals to map expected changes in species ranges through the end of the century. We will co-sponsor a series of workshops with the U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service, and The Nature Conservancy to demonstrate the modeling approach, and to transfer the modeling software with documentation to these end users.
Publications:
Coops, N. C., Gaulton, R., Waring, R. H. 2010. Mapping site indices for five Pacific Northwest conifers using a physiologically based model. Applied Vegetation Science. 14(2), 268-276. DOI: 10.1111/j.1654-109x.2010.01109.x
Coops, N. C., Hember, R. A., Waring, R. H. 2010. Assessing the impact of current and projected climates on Douglas-Fir productivity in British Columbia, Canada, using a process-based model (3-PG). Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 40(3), 511-524. DOI: 10.1139/x09-201
Coops, N. C., Waring, R. H. 2011. Estimating the vulnerability of fifteen tree species under changing climate in Northwest North America. Ecological Modelling. 222(13), 2119-2129. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.03.033
Coops, N. C., Waring, R. H., Beier, C., Roy-Jauvin, R., Wang, T. 2011. Modeling the occurrence of 15 coniferous tree species throughout the Pacific Northwest of North America using a hybrid approach of a generic process-based growth model and decision tree analysis. Applied Vegetation Science. 14(3), 402-414. DOI: 10.1111/j.1654-109x.2011.01125.x
Coops, N. C., Waring, R. H., Hilker, T. 2012. Prediction of soil properties using a process-based forest growth model to match satellite-derived estimates of leaf area index. Remote Sensing of Environment. 126, 160-173. DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2012.08.024
Dorman, J. G., Powell, T. M., Sydeman, W. J., Bograd, S. J. 2011. Advection and starvation cause krill (Euphausia pacifica) decreases in 2005 Northern California coastal populations: Implications from a model study. Geophysical Research Letters. 38(4). DOI: 10.1029/2010gl046245
Huff, D. D., Lindley, S. T., Wells, B. K., Chai, F. 2012. Green Sturgeon Distribution in the Pacific Ocean Estimated from Modeled Oceanographic Features and Migration Behavior. PLoS ONE. 7(9), e45852. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0045852
Messi, C. 1989. The Massage Therapist in Rehabilitation. Rehabilitation Nursing. 14(3), 137-138. DOI: 10.1002/j.2048-7940.1989.tb01079.x
Palacz, A. P., Chai, F. Spatial and temporal variability in nutrients and carbon uptake during 2004 and 2005 in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean DOI: 10.5194/bgd-9-701-2012
Santora, J. A., Field, J. C., Schroeder, I. D., Sakuma, K. M., Wells, B. K., Sydeman, W. J. 2012. Spatial ecology of krill, micronekton and top predators in the central California Current: Implications for defining ecologically important areas. Progress in Oceanography. 106, 154-174. DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2012.08.005
Santora, J. A., Ralston, S., Sydeman, W. J. 2011. Spatial organization of krill and seabirds in the central California Current. ICES Journal of Marine Science. 68(7), 1391-1402. DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsr046
Santora, J. A., Sydeman, W. J., Messie, M., Chai, F., Chao, Y., Thompson, S. A., Wells, B. K., Chavez, F. P. 2013. Triple check: Observations verify structural realism of an ocean ecosystem model. Geophysical Research Letters. 40(7), 1367-1372. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50312
Santora, J. A., Sydeman, W. J., Schroeder, I. D., Reiss, C. S., Wells, B. K., Field, J. C., Cossio, A. M., Loeb, V. J. 2012. Krill space: a comparative assessment of mesoscale structuring in polar and temperate marine ecosystems. ICES Journal of Marine Science. 69(7), 1317-1327. DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fss048
Santora, J. A., Sydeman, W. J., Schroeder, I. D., Wells, B. K., Field, J. C. 2011. Mesoscale structure and oceanographic determinants of krill hotspots in the California Current: Implications for trophic transfer and conservation. Progress in Oceanography. 91(4), 397-409. DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2011.04.002
Smettem, K. R. J., Waring, R. H., Callow, J. N., Wilson, M., Mu, Q. 2013. Satellite-derived estimates of forest leaf area index in southwest Western Australia are not tightly coupled to interannual variations in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate. Global Change Biology. 19(8), 2401-2412. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12223
Sydeman, W. J., Santora, J. A., Thompson, S. A., Marinovic, B., Lorenzo, E. D. 2013. Increasing variance in North Pacific climate relates to unprecedented ecosystem variability off California. Global Change Biology. 19(6), 1662-1675. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12165
Waring, R. H., Coops, N. C., Running, S. W. 2011. Predicting satellite-derived patterns of large-scale disturbances in forests of the Pacific Northwest Region in response to recent climatic variation. Remote Sensing of Environment. 115(12), 3554-3566. DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2011.08.017
Waring, R. H., Landsberg, J. J. 2011. Generalizing plant-water relations to landscapes. Journal of Plant Ecology. 4(1-2), 101-113. DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtq041
Wells, B., Santora, J., Field, J., MacFarlane, R., Marinovic, B., Sydeman, W. 2012. Population dynamics of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha relative to prey availability in the central California coastal region. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 457, 125-137. DOI: 10.3354/meps09727
Xiu, P., Chai, F. 2014. Connections between physical, optical and biogeochemical processes in the Pacific Ocean. Progress in Oceanography. 122, 30-53. DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2013.11.008
Xiu, P., Chai, F. Physical-biological interactions to the west of Hawaiian Islands: impact of submesoscale dynamics on biological productivity DOI: 10.5194/bgd-10-12529-2013
Xiu, P., Thomas, A. C., Chai, F. 2014. Satellite bio-optical and altimeter comparisons of phytoplankton blooms induced by natural and artificial iron addition in the Gulf of Alaska. Remote Sensing of Environment. 145, 38-46. DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2014.02.004
Xu, Y., Chai, F., Rose, K. A., Niquen C., M., Chavez, F. P. 2013. Environmental influences on the interannual variation and spatial distribution of Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) population dynamics from 1991 to 2007: A three-dimensional modeling study. Ecological Modelling. 264, 64-82. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.01.009
Xu, Y., Rose, K. A., Chai, F., Chavez, F. P., Ayon, P. 2015. Does spatial variation in environmental conditions affect recruitment? A study using a 3-D model of Peruvian anchovy. Progress in Oceanography. 138, 417-430. DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2015.04.002
2011 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Poster(s)
- Predicting the occurrence, vulnerability and future distribution of major tree species in the Pacific Northwest in response to climatic change
-- (Nicholas C Coops, Richard H. Waring)
[abstract]
[poster]
More details may be found in the following project profile(s):
