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Ecological Forecasting
Chairs: Gary Geller, Woody Turner
Discussion Questions:
  • What does NASA's Ecological Forecasting program element draw from NASA's Earth system science modeling investments? How can the transition of these models into decision support be improved/strengthened? How do we know/decide when an Earth system modeling capability has matured to the stage it can be used in decision support?
  • How should the NASA Ecological Forecasting Program help to inter-relate the climate, hydrological, ecological, and biogeochemical models traditionally supported by NASA, many of which operate at relatively coarse spatial scales and capture a certain set of mechanisms, and the ecological models used by management agencies, planners, and investors (e.g.: niche models, population and habitat viability models, socioeconomic models, financial models) that often operate at relatively fine spatial scales and capture sometimes different sets of mechanisms? What needs to be done to make the products of NASA's research models relevant for ecological forecasting? How can we foster more connections between these different types of models and modelers?
  • More specifically, how can NASA contribute to the global effort to "achieve by 2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss" — the so-called 2010 Biodiversity Target? What satellite-relevant models are appropriate here in terms of a monitoring strategy and how can we link them to other efforts?
Comments:
--- Please forward any additional comments to the relevant Program Manager at NASA Headquarters. ---
Here are some very preliminary thoughts on a “modeling web,” a long-term (5-10 yrs or more), vision-level concept. It seems that other organizations and people must be discussing this, so please let me know if you know who they are.

Modeling web:
* Distributed network of interoperating models (and datasets)
* Model scope could include all physical and biological processes
* Output could feed ecological forecasting and other disciplines
* Web grows organically within a framework of data exchange standards and broad goals
* Each model or dataset maintained, operated, and served independently
* Best models used more and move forward (natural selection)
* Fits with GEOSS
* Global, interagency, international
* US contributors could include NASA (various programs), NOAA, USGS, NSF (NEON…)…

Purpose: to facilitate the coupling of models in different disciplines, and their use by other models or data users. Ecological forecasting would tend to be on the downstream side, fairly close to end-users such as conservation managers.

Other comments:

* There would be no central organization except probably to set standards for data exchange, and some broad goals.
* Participation in the web would be voluntary and up to the individual modeling groups and their sponsors.
* Such a model web would become, in effect, a single large model, analogous to a web computer.

– submitted by Gary Geller at 2006-08-25 08:44:03


 


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