Byrd, Kristin: USGS (Project Lead)
Project Funding:
2014 - 2016
NRA: 2012 NASA: Ecological Forecasting
Funded by NASA
Abstract:
Estuarine managers need ecological forecasting tools to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change. In partnership with the NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS), we will integrate Earth to in situ observations with a model of tidal marsh elevations to forecast spatially-explicit coastal habitat response to sea level rise, a key NERRS concern. We will apply the Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM3), a site-calibrated, 1-D mechanistic model that predicts dynamic rates of mineral and organic accretion based on two primary variables: total suspended sediment and peak aboveground biomass. Earth observations of these two variables from LDCM, AVIRIS and World View-2 sensors will be used to generate spatially-explicit model outputs. Elevation responses for four zones (unvegetated, low, middle, and high marsh) will be incorporated into a spatial model to produce maps for assessing habitat sustainability and potential for landward migration. This forecasting tool will be assessed in a skill-building workshop with local and national partners to determine the most useful products for decision-making activities, such as establishing restoration sites and routes of public access. We will focus research on a brackish marsh, Rush Ranch, one of two sites in the San Francisco Bay NERR. The NERRS is national network of 28 reserves that share system-wide monitoring programs and unfunded initiatives to assess habitat responses to sea level rise. Rush Ranch is well-suited as a test site due to its habitat diversity, rich plant productivity datasets, active stakeholder-based planning, and involvement in a statewide citizen-science photo-documentation program (www.californiakingtides.org). As a core member of one of 5 NOAA-wide pilot projects for sentinel sites, SFBNERR is actively developing national elevation monitoring protocols. NERRS managers are committed to further development and implementation of a tool that can be used broadly to advance climate change adaptation planning, and for monitoring and managing estuaries nationally.
Publications:
Byrd, K. B., Ballanti, L., Thomas, N., Nguyen, D., Holmquist, J. R., Simard, M., Windham-Myers, L. 2018. A remote sensing-based model of tidal marsh aboveground carbon stocks for the conterminous United States. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. 139, 255-271. DOI: 10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2018.03.019
Byrd, K. B., Windham-Myers, L., Leeuw, T., Downing, B., Morris, J. T., Ferner, M. C. 2016. Forecasting tidal marsh elevation and habitat change through fusion of Earth observations and a process model. Ecosphere. 7(11). DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1582
2015 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Poster(s)
- Remote Sensing of Vegetation and Aquatic Parameters for Modeling Coastal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise
-- (Kristin Byrd, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Lisa Schile, Thomas Leeuw, Emmanuel Boss, Michael Vasey, Matthew Ferner)
[abstract]
[poster]
More details may be found in the following project profile(s):
