Satellite observations reveal decadal changes in Adelie penguin habitat suitability in the Southern Ocean

Megan Cimino, University of Delaware, mcimino@udel.edu (Presenter)
Heather Lynch, Stony Brook University, heather.lynch@stonybrook.edu
Matthew Oliver, University of Delaware, moliver@udel.edu

Decadal-scale trends in Adelie penguin populations correspond to changes in remote sensed observations of sea ice and sea surface temperature during the austral summer (chick-rearing period). Using satellite-derived sea ice, sea surface temperature and bare rock nesting locations, we compared two common approaches to species distribution modeling for a species with a known distribution in the Southern Ocean. We used Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and a maximum-entropy approach (MaxEnt) that utilize presence-absence and presence-only data to temporally and spatially identify suitable Adelie penguin chick-rearing habitats from 1980 to 2010. The MaxEnt models performed better than the GLMs but both modeling approaches produced similar spatiotemporal trends, which include a decline in suitable habitats along with West Antarctic Peninsula and an increase in suitable habitats in the Bellingshausen Sea, Ross Sea and East Antarctica. The trends in chick-rearing habitat suitability were also in general agreement with previously documented population trends over the same time period and location. We will use these models and CMIP5 climate projections to predict how habitat suitability will change in the future.

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Theme 1: Tracking habitat change through new integrative approaches and products   (Mon 1:30 PM)

Associated Project(s): 

• Oliver, Matt: Satellite Driven Studies of Climate Mediated Changes in Antarctic Food-Webs ...details

Poster Location ID: 14