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Funded Research

Impacts of Changing Climate and Land Use on Carbon Cycling and Budgets of the Coastal Ocean Margin: Observations, Analysis, and Modeling

Friedrichs, Marjorie (Marjy): Virginia Institute of Marine Science (Project Lead)
Hofmann, Eileen: Old Dominion University (Project Lead)
Lee, Cindy: Retired-Stony Brook University (Co-Investigator)
Najjar, Raymond (Ray): Pennsylvania State University (Co-Investigator)
Signorini, Sergio: NASA GSFC (Co-Investigator)
Tabatabai, Aboozar: Rutgers University (Co-Investigator)
Tian, Hanqin: Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Boston College (Co-Investigator)
Wilkin, John: Rutgers University (Co-Investigator)
Hyde, Kimberly (Kim): NOAA (Institution Lead)
Mannino, Antonio: NASA GSFC (Institution Lead)
Feng, Cathy: Virginia Institute of Marine Science (Participant)
Xiao, Yongjin: Virginia Institute of Marine Science (Participant)
Yang, Qichun: Pacific NW National Lab (Participant)

Project Funding: 2011 - 2015

NRA: 2009 NASA: Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science   

Funded by NASA

The overall goal of this project is to investigate the impact of climate variability, climate change, and land-cover/land-use change on the transport and cycling of carbon and nitrogen to and within the coastal ocean margins. This goal will be achieved by linking an ocean biogeochemical-circulation model of the Northeastern North American continental shelf (NENA) to a Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM). Both models will be initialized, forced and evaluated with a large suite of satellite data products. Three interconnected research questions will be addressed: 1) how do extreme climate events (floods, droughts) and climate change (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation) affect the magnitude and seasonality of river discharge, and transports of carbon and nitrogen from upland landscapes to the continental margin; 2) what are the impacts of these changes in terrestrial runoff on ecosystem processes and biogeochemical cycling within the continental margin and o n cross-shelf nutrient and carbon fluxes; and 3) how will projected land use, climate variability, and climate change influence carbon and nitrogen cycling in the US eastern coastal ocean margins through changing the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems in major watersheds on time scales of a century from now? These research questions will be addressed with an integrated modeling and data analysis approach. Much of the development and evaluation of the terrestrial (DLEM) and coastal ocean (NENA) models has been accomplished through prior activities, and thus the emphasis now is to couple the models and initiate coupled land-ocean simulations to address our interdisciplinary research questions.


Friedman, J. R., Shadwick, E. H., Friedrichs, M. A., Najjar, R. G., De Meo, O. A., Da, F., Smith, J. L. 2020. Seasonal Variability of the CO 2 System in a Large Coastal Plain Estuary. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 125(1). DOI: 10.1029/2019JC015609

Friedrichs, M. A. M., St-Laurent, P., Xiao, Y., Hofmann, E., Hyde, K., Mannino, A., Najjar, R. G., Narvaez, D. A., Signorini, S. R., Tian, H., Wilkin, J., Yao, Y., Xue, J. 2019. Ocean Circulation Causes Strong Variability in the Mid-Atlantic Bight Nitrogen Budget. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 124(1), 113-134. DOI: 10.1029/2018JC014424

Herrmann, M., Najjar, R. G., Da, F., Friedman, J. R., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Goldberger, S., Menendez, A., Shadwick, E. H., Stets, E. G., St-Laurent, P. 2020. Challenges in Quantifying Air-Water Carbon Dioxide Flux Using Estuarine Water Quality Data: Case Study for Chesapeake Bay. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 125(7). DOI: 10.1029/2019JC015610

Irby, I. D., Friedrichs, M. A. M. 2018. Evaluating Confidence in the Impact of Regulatory Nutrient Reduction on Chesapeake Bay Water Quality. Estuaries and Coasts. 42(1), 16-32. DOI: 10.1007/s12237-018-0440-5

Kim, G. E., St-Laurent, P., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Mannino, A. 2020. Impacts of Water Clarity Variability on Temperature and Biogeochemistry in the Chesapeake Bay. Estuaries and Coasts. 43(8), 1973-1991. DOI: 10.1007/s12237-020-00760-x

Moriarty, J. M., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Harris, C. K. 2020. Seabed Resuspension in the Chesapeake Bay: Implications for Biogeochemical Cycling and Hypoxia. Estuaries and Coasts. 44(1), 103-122. DOI: 10.1007/s12237-020-00763-8

Najjar, R. G., Herrmann, M., Alexander, R., Boyer, E. W., Burdige, D. J., Butman, D., Cai, W., Canuel, E. A., Chen, R. F., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Feagin, R. A., Griffith, P. C., Hinson, A. L., Holmquist, J. R., Hu, X., Kemp, W. M., Kroeger, K. D., Mannino, A., McCallister, S. L., McGillis, W. R., Mulholland, M. R., Pilskaln, C. H., Salisbury, J., Signorini, S. R., St-Laurent, P., Tian, H., Tzortziou, M., Vlahos, P., Wang, Z. A., Zimmerman, R. C. 2018. Carbon Budget of Tidal Wetlands, Estuaries, and Shelf Waters of Eastern North America. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 32(3), 389-416. DOI: 10.1002/2017GB005790

Najjar, R. G., Herrmann, M., Cintron Del Valle, S. M., Friedman, J. R., Friedrichs, M. A., Harris, L. A., Shadwick, E. H., Stets, E. G., Woodland, R. J. 2020. Alkalinity in Tidal Tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 125(1). DOI: 10.1029/2019JC015597

Shadwick, E. H., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Najjar, R. G., De Meo, O. A., Friedman, J. R., Da, F., Reay, W. G. 2019. High-Frequency CO 2 System Variability Over the Winter-to-Spring Transition in a Coastal Plain Estuary. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 124(11), 7626-7642. DOI: 10.1029/2019JC015246

Signorini, S. R., Mannino, A., Friedrichs, M. A. M., St-Laurent, P., Wilkin, J., Tabatabai, A., Najjar, R. G., Hofmann, E. E., Da, F., Tian, H., Yao, Y. 2019. Estuarine Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux From Space: With Application to Chesapeake and Delaware Bays. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 124(6), 3755-3778. DOI: 10.1029/2018JC014646

St-Laurent, P., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Najjar, R. G., Shadwick, E. H., Tian, H., Yao, Y. 2020. Relative impacts of global changes and regional watershed changes on the inorganic carbon balance of the Chesapeake Bay. Biogeosciences. 17(14), 3779-3796. DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-3779-2020

Yang, Q., Tian, H., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Hopkinson, C. S., Lu, C., Najjar, R. G. 2015. Increased nitrogen export from eastern North America to the Atlantic Ocean due to climatic and anthropogenic changes during 1901-2008. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 120(6), 1046-1068. DOI: 10.1002/2014JG002763

Yang, Q., Tian, H., Li, X., Ren, W., Zhang, B., Zhang, X., Wolf, J. 2016. Spatiotemporal patterns of livestock manure nutrient production in the conterminous United States from 1930 to 2012. Science of The Total Environment. 541, 1592-1602. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.10.044

Benway, H. M., Alin, S. R., Boyer, E., Cai, W., Coble, P. G., Cross, J. N., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Goni, M., Griffith, P., Herrmann, M., Lohrenz, S. E., Mathis, J. T., McKinley, G. A., Najjar, R. G., Pilskaln, C. H., Siedlecki, S. A., Smith, R. A. 2016. A science plan for carbon cycle research in North American coastal waters. Report of the Coastal CARbon Synthesis (CCARS) community workshop, August 19-21, 2014 DOI: 10.1575/1912/7777

Tian, H., Lu, C., Ciais, P., Michalak, A. M., Canadell, J. G., Saikawa, E., Huntzinger, D. N., Gurney, K. R., Sitch, S., Zhang, B., Yang, J., Bousquet, P., Bruhwiler, L., Chen, G., Dlugokencky, E., Friedlingstein, P., Melillo, J., Pan, S., Poulter, B., Prinn, R., Saunois, M., Schwalm, C. R., Wofsy, S. C. 2016. The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Nature. 531(7593), 225-228. DOI: 10.1038/nature16946

Chen, G., Tian, H., Zhang, C., Liu, M., Ren, W., Zhu, W., Chappelka, A. H., Prior, S. A., Lockaby, G. B. 2012. Drought in the Southern United States over the 20th century: variability and its impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and carbon storage. Climatic Change. 114(2), 379-397. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0410-z

Tian, H., Lu, C., Chen, G., Tao, B., Pan, S., Grosso, S. J. D., Xu, X., Bruhwiler, L., Wofsy, S. C., Kort, E. A., Prior, S. A. 2012. Contemporary and projected biogenic fluxes of methane and nitrous oxide in North American terrestrial ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 10(10), 528-536. DOI: 10.1890/120057

Tian, H., Chen, G., Zhang, C., Liu, M., Sun, G., Chappelka, A., Ren, W., Xu, X., Lu, C., Pan, S., Chen, H., Hui, D., McNulty, S., Lockaby, G., Vance, E. 2012. Century-Scale Responses of Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Flux to Multiple Environmental Changes in the Southern United States. Ecosystems. 15(4), 674-694. DOI: 10.1007/s10021-012-9539-x

Xu, X. F., Tian, H. Q., Chen, G. S., Liu, M. L., Ren, W., Lu, C. Q., Zhang, C. 2012. Multifactor controls on terrestrial N<sub>2</sub>O flux over North America from 1979 through 2010. Biogeosciences. 9(4), 1351-1366. DOI: 10.5194/bg-9-1351-2012

Zhang, C., Tian, H., Chen, G., Chappelka, A., Xu, X., Ren, W., Hui, D., Liu, M., Lu, C., Pan, S., Lockaby, G. 2012. Impacts of urbanization on carbon balance in terrestrial ecosystems of the Southern United States. Environmental Pollution. 164, 89-101. DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2012.01.020

Hofmann, E. E., Cahill, B., Fennel, K., Friedrichs, M. A., Hyde, K., Lee, C., Mannino, A., Najjar, R. G., O'Reilly, J. E., Wilkin, J., Xue, J. 2011. Modeling the Dynamics of Continental Shelf Carbon. Annual Review of Marine Science. 3(1), 93-122. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-marine-120709-142740

Pan, X., Mannino, A., Marshall, H. G., Filippino, K. C., Mulholland, M. R. 2011. Remote sensing of phytoplankton community composition along the northeast coast of the United States. Remote Sensing of Environment. 115(12), 3731-3747. DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2011.09.011

Saba, V. S., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Antoine, D., Armstrong, R. A., Asanuma, I., Behrenfeld, M. J., Ciotti, A. M., Dowell, M., Hoepffner, N., Hyde, K. J. W., Ishizaka, J., Kameda, T., Marra, J., Melin, F., Morel, A., O'Reilly, J., Scardi, M., Smith, W. O., Smyth, T. J., Tang, S., Uitz, J., Waters, K., Westberry, T. K. 2011. An evaluation of ocean color model estimates of marine primary productivity in coastal and pelagic regions across the globe. Biogeosciences. 8(2), 489-503. DOI: 10.5194/bg-8-489-2011

Signorini, S. R., Mannino, A., Najjar, R. G., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Cai, W., Salisbury, J., Wang, Z. A., Thomas, H., Shadwick, E. 2013. Surface ocean p CO2 seasonality and sea-air CO2 flux estimates for the North American east coast. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 118(10), 5439-5460. DOI: 10.1002/jgrc.20369

2015 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Poster(s)

  • Satellite-Derived Properties of Dissolved Organic Matter within Estuarine and Continental Shelf Waters Along the Northeastern U.S. Coast   --   (Antonio Mannino, Michael Novak, Peter Hernes, Kimberly Hyde, Sergio Signorini)   [abstract]
  • Dissolved organic carbon fluxes and stocks in the Mid-Atlantic Bight   --   (Sergio Signorini, Antonio Mannino, John Wilkin, Marjorie Friedrichs, Raymond Najjar)   [abstract]
  • Synergistic impacts of population growth, urbanization, and climate change on watersheds and coastal ecology of the northeastern United States   --   (Raymond Najjar, Marjorie Friedrichs, Eileen Hofmann, Kimberly Hyde, Antonio Mannino, Hanqin Tian, John Wilkin, Sergio Signorini)   [abstract]
  • Contemporary and projected lateral carbon fluxes from North America to Oceans: A process-based modeling study   --   (Hanqin Tian, Qichun Yang, Wei Ren, Chaoqun Lu, Bowen Zhang, Shufen Pan, Bo Tao, Steven Lohrenz, Wei-Jun Cai, Ruoying He, Marjorie Friedrichs, Raymond Najjar)   [abstract]

2011 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Poster(s)

  • Interannual Variability of Primary Production and Carbon Fluxes on Northeast North American Shelf: Sensitivity to Climate Change?   --   (Bronwyn Cahill, Katja Fennel, John Wilkin)   [abstract]
  • The effect of river freshwater discharge on the carbon cycling of the US Eastern continental shelf: Results from a three-dimensional total dissolved organic matter model study   --   (Jianhong Xue, Marjorie Friedrichs, Antonio Mannino, Bronwyn Cahill, John Wilkin, Cindy Lee, Katja Fennel, Eileen Hofmann, Raymond Najjar, Kimberly Hyde)   [abstract]
  • Exports of Water, Carbon and Nutrients to the U.S. East Coast during 1901-2008 as simulated by DLEM: Results from a NASA IDS Project   --   (Hanqin Tian, Mingliang Liu, Qichun Yang, Marjy Friedrichs, Eileen Hofmann)   [abstract]
  • Model-based Analyses of Nitrogen Cycling on the Middle Atlantic Bight Continental Shelf   --   (Tian Tian, Marjorie Friedrichs, Eileen Hofmann)   [abstract]
  • The U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling Project (U.S. ECoS)   --   (Marjorie Friedrichs, Eileen Hofmann, Bronwyn Cahill, Katja Fennel, Kimberly Hyde, Antonio Mannino, Raymond Najjar, Sergio Signorini, Hanqin Tian, John Wilkin, Yongjin Xiao, Jianhong Xue)   [abstract]

More details may be found in the following project profile(s):