Project Funding: 2014 - 2017

NRA: 2012 NASA: Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science   

Funded by NASA

Abstract:
Coastal flooding associated with powerful storms is a well-recognized natural hazard along the U.S. Atlantic coast. Given the significant regional intersection of high population density and critical infrastructure and the compounding impact of rising sea levels, it is important that we continue to improve our understanding and ability to quantify the region’s exposure to weather and climate hazards as well as the areas’ societal and ecosystem vulnerabilities, and how they interact to create the overall vulnerability to climate variability and change. Here we propose a study of the region’s present vulnerabilities to cold season storms in order to understand the underlying societal and physical processes and quantify them in a systematic manner both in present and in the future under climate change and projected population growth. The backbone for the project is an analysis of the variability of extratropical cyclones that impact the coast. The analysis begins with an automated identification of historical storms. Once the storms are identified, we will categorize the storms’ variability in terms of their path, frequency and strength. As extratropical cyclone strength is ambiguous, we seek to define metrics based on storm-local surface wind speed and precipitation that directly relate to hazards affecting people and ecosystems. Our preliminary analysis of TRMM-3B42 precipitation data links extreme precipitation events along the coast to the extratropical cyclones. Therefore, our proposed work will (a) develop more robust descriptors of the different type of extremes, (b) link the precipitation extremes to social and place-based vulnerability, and (c) determine what, if any, connection exists between cyclone variability and high intensity precipitation events. Furthermore, given the large natural variability inherent in extratropical cyclone behavior, we will generate a stochastic model of the storms, which will allow a probabilistic analysis of the storm hazards. For coastal areas, both humans and ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to storm surges. Therefore, we will characterize the physical processes that determine the link between extratropical cyclones and storm surges, and determine the relative importance of different characteristics of the cyclones towards the generation of hazards. To accomplish this, we will run a numerical storm surge model, which will be forced by the stochastic storm model. In addition to our focus on surge dynamics, the numerical storm surge model will be adapted to study coastal erosion, a process that creates some of the worst hazards for humans living on the coast. To quantitatively assess risk and vulnerability of the coastal populations, we will carry out systematic mapping of data from the US Census Grids, developed by NASA’s Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). The drastic precipitation and temperature changes associated with winter extratropical cyclones also make them hazardous to coastal ecosystems. To assess these hazards, we will analyze all clear MODIS-Aqua data that was collected by NASA before and after extreme winter storms that impacted the U.S. East Coast over the last decade and demonstrate the value of high resolution remote sensing by assessing how the ecosystem (chlorophyll and other optically derived properties) respond to flood-induced erosion and sediment transport along the Northern U.S. East Coast in relation to these powerful storms. After we create metrics of storm variability and strength and storm surge and erosion risk, we will utilize statistics of extreme value theory to determine return periods for different levels of events and link these to our analysis of human and ecosystem vulnerability. This will provide an improved understanding of the coupled human-natural systems along the coast in extreme winter storm situations and deliver probabilistic information in support of decisions for adaptation and response.

Publications:

Booth, J. F., Rieder, H. E., Kushnir, Y. 2016. Comparing hurricane and extratropical storm surge for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast of the United States for 1979-2013. Environmental Research Letters. 11(9), 094004. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094004

Booth, J. F., Rieder, H. E., Lee, D. E., Kushnir, Y. 2015. The Paths of Extratropical Cyclones Associated with Wintertime High-Wind Events in the Northeastern United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 54(9), 1871-1885. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0320.1

Colle, B. A., Booth, J. F., Chang, E. K. M. 2015. A Review of Historical and Future Changes of Extratropical Cyclones and Associated Impacts Along the US East Coast. Current Climate Change Reports. 1(3), 125-143. DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0013-7

Shimkus, C. E., Ting, M., Booth, J. F., Adamo, S. B., Madajewicz, M., Kushnir, Y., Rieder, H. E. 2017. Winter storm intensity, hazards, and property losses in the New York tristate area. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 1400(1), 65-80. DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13396

2015 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Poster(s)

• Response of estuarine and coastal ecosystems to winter storms in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the U.S.   --   (Raymond Sambrotto, Sherwin Ladner, Sean McCarthy)   [abstract]

More details may be found in the following project profile(s):

• NASA Terrestrial Ecology (TE) Project Profile