Project Funding: 2011 - 2014

NRA: 2010 NASA: Carbon Cycle Science   

Funded by NASA

Abstract:
The proposed work addresses the need to accurately measure the changes over time in emissions of the main carbon greenhouse gases (GHGs), carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from major countries or emitting regions, as part of the implementation of a future international agreement to limit GHG emissions. Global scale data for treaty monitoring will come from satellites. National emissions have a strong imprint on atmospheric concentrations, but the strongest signals reside at length scales too small and frequencies too high to be measured comprehensively from space. These signals are averaged out as ‘noise’ in current algorithms. Diurnal variations have key diagnostic information, especially for CO2, but cannot be measured from Low Earth Orbit. We propose a framework to add information to satellite retrievals and to the analysis of emission rates and trends, using high-resolution data obtained within source regions. We will develop a very-high-resolution model framework to ingest and assimilate in situ data, create a regional optimized surface flux product, and accurately aggregate the results to satellite-observable scales. The components of the proposed work are: 1. Develop a comprehensive, consistent, open database for key GHGs (CO2, CH4), and for CO (a critical ancillary molecule) from surface stations and aircraft in target regions in North and South America (population centers, wetlands, industrial regions, Amazon Basin). 2. Construct high-resolution (vertical, horizontal, temporal) full-column realizations for these gases using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model at observation sites in target regions. This step involves (a) computation of high-resolution assimilated meteorological fields using the WRF or BRAMS model, (b) creation of low-dimensional a priori emission models for CO2, CH4, and CO, coupled to WRF or BRAMS if needed, (c) running STILT to create the realizations, and (d) optimizing the emission model to best match observations. A by-product will be the regional trace gas budget. 3. Generate time/space-resolved XCO2, XCH4, and XCO and simulate satellite retrievals to quantitatively assess (i) the capability of the combined framework to measure means, errors, and trends of emissions, for example, by providing adaptive priors or other predictor-corrector approaches to improving the satellite products, and (ii) the information gain from the infusion of in situ data, for current and planned satellites and for hypothetical sensors that could be deployed in the next ~10 years. The results of this work will be a prototype framework for treaty verification and an assessment of the value added from such a framework. This element provides quantitative assessment of the capability of current (GOSAT), planned (OCO-2), and hypothetical follow-on satellites to contribute to treaty monitoring and verification. 4. Develop new strategies for measurements, algorithms, and data analysis to ingest information from fine-grained in situ data into satellite retrievals. High-resolution realizations from our framework provide adaptive priors for satellite algorithms linked directly to a complete regional emissions budget and in situ data; they can potentially exploit ratio measurements for GHGs relative to CO to partition emissions by sector or process, and to utilize the covariances of errors in CO, CO2, and CH4 to improve retrieval accuracy. The results of this work will be a prototype framework for ingesting in situ fine-grained data into satellite retrievals, an assessment of the value added from this framework in the context of treaty monitoring and verification, an optimal link between surface emission rates, in situ data, and satellite observations, and validation of GOSAT and OCO-2 using aircraft and ground data.

Publications:

McKain, K., Down, A., Raciti, S. M., Budney, J., Hutyra, L. R., Floerchinger, C., Herndon, S. C., Nehrkorn, T., Zahniser, M. S., Jackson, R. B., Phillips, N., Wofsy, S. C. 2015. Methane emissions from natural gas infrastructure and use in the urban region of Boston, Massachusetts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 112(7), 1941-1946. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1416261112

McKain, K., Wofsy, S. C., Nehrkorn, T., Eluszkiewicz, J., Ehleringer, J. R., Stephens, B. B. 2012. Assessment of ground-based atmospheric observations for verification of greenhouse gas emissions from an urban region. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109(22), 8423-8428. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1116645109

Miller, S. M., Michalak, A. M., Levi, P. J. 2014. Atmospheric inverse modeling with known physical bounds: an example from trace gas emissions. Geoscientific Model Development. 7(1), 303-315. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-7-303-2014

Miller, S. M., Wofsy, S. C., Michalak, A. M., Kort, E. A., Andrews, A. E., Biraud, S. C., Dlugokencky, E. J., Eluszkiewicz, J., Fischer, M. L., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Miller, B. R., Miller, J. B., Montzka, S. A., Nehrkorn, T., Sweeney, C. 2013. Anthropogenic emissions of methane in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110(50), 20018-20022. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1314392110

Miller, S. M., Worthy, D. E. J., Michalak, A. M., Wofsy, S. C., Kort, E. A., Havice, T. C., Andrews, A. E., Dlugokencky, E. J., Kaplan, J. O., Levi, P. J., Tian, H., Zhang, B. 2014. Observational constraints on the distribution, seasonality, and environmental predictors of North American boreal methane emissions. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 28(2), 146-160. DOI: 10.1002/2013GB004580

Nehrkorn, T., Henderson, J., Leidner, M., Mountain, M., Eluszkiewicz, J., McKain, K., Wofsy, S. 2013. WRF Simulations of the Urban Circulation in the Salt Lake City Area for CO2 Modeling. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 52(2), 323-340. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-12-061.1

Santoni, G. W., Daube, B. C., Kort, E. A., Jimenez, R., Park, S., Pittman, J. V., Gottlieb, E., Xiang, B., Zahniser, M. S., Nelson, D. D., McManus, J. B., Peischl, J., Ryerson, T. B., Holloway, J. S., Andrews, A. E., Sweeney, C., Hall, B., Hintsa, E. J., Moore, F. L., Elkins, J. W., Hurst, D. F., Stephens, B. B., Bent, J., Wofsy, S. C. 2014. Evaluation of the airborne quantum cascade laser spectrometer (QCLS) measurements of the carbon and greenhouse gas suite - CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, N<sub>2</sub>O, and CO - during the CalNex and HIPPO campaigns. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques. 7(6), 1509-1526. DOI: 10.5194/amt-7-1509-2014

Xiang, B., Miller, S. M., Kort, E. A., Santoni, G. W., Daube, B. C., Commane, R., Angevine, W. M., Ryerson, T. B., Trainer, M. K., Andrews, A. E., Nehrkorn, T., Tian, H., Wofsy, S. C. 2013. Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from California based on 2010 CalNex airborne measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 118(7), 2809-2820. DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50189

2015 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Poster(s)

• Quantification of Methane Emissions from Natural Gas Losses in the Urban Region of Boston, Massachusetts with an Atmospheric Measurement Network and Modeling Framework   --   (Kathryn McKain, Adrian Down, Steve M. Raciti, John Budney, Lucy R. Hutyra, Cody Floerchinger, Scott C. Herndon, Thomas Nehrkorn, Mark S. Zahniser, Robert Jackson, Nathan Phillips, Steven Wofsy)   [abstract]

More details may be found in the following project profile(s):

• NASA Terrestrial Ecology (TE) Project Profile