Project Funding: 2011 - 2014

NRA: 2010 NASA: Carbon Cycle Science   

Funded by NASA

Abstract:
We propose to use integrated forest monitoring and simulation models to evaluate trade-offs among carbon, and ecosystem services in a forest region. Our objectives are: 1) evaluate carbon and ecosystem services produced under alternative future scenarios defined in terms of climate change and forest management strategies for the Pacific Northwest and northern California; 2) evaluate tradeoffs among select ecosystem services (carbon, biodiversity indicators, and wood products); and 3) work with stakeholders from a variety of agencies and organizations to improve the value of the work to society and better communicate our findings. The project will reveal opportunities to alter management to improve the production of multiple ecosystem services. The work will also address the effect fuel management on carbon in fire-prone landscapes, which is a subject of major scientific uncertainty. We will use a suite of established models including LandCarb 3 and ForProd 2 (landscape characteristics, carbon, and wood products), a forest stand vegetation simulator (FVS), and wildlife habitat capability models. The project has both retrospective and prospective dimensions. Historical and alternative future relationships among carbon (storage and flux), wildlife habitat (for several different species) and wood products will be characterized in sample landscapes representing 8 of the major forest ecoregions of the study area. The project will rely on annual resolution Landsat products to characterize historical changes in forest conditions associated with disturbance (both natural and management) and forest re-establishment rates. The carbon models will use this information to predict changes in carbon stores both in the forest and in wood products. Recently acquired Lidar data will be used to check the predictions of the forest models in terms of growth, biomass and carbon stores, and wood production. This retrospective component will prototype a remote-sensing-ecosystem monitoring approach and will also establish a baseline to evaluate the landscape simulation models. We will then project and evaluate 10 alternative future climate and management scenarios, comparing levels of ecosystem services among different management approaches. The stand development simulator will be used to evaluate how silvicultural prescriptions affect the relationship between carbon and forest structure. The results of these stand-level analyses will inform how different carbon management strategies impact patterns of forest structure at landscape and regional scales. Wildlife habitat suitability models will then be developed for focal species representing a range of biodiversity potentials. Tradeoff analysis will be conducted using the scenario simulations as data points. The work is highly relevant to NASA and the NRA objectives of Carbon Cycle Science and Applied Science. First, it seeks to improve understanding of the carbon cycle as it relates to land use and land cover change. Second, it encompasses the multiple temporal and spatial scales needed to understand these issues. Third, it considers tradeoffs between carbon and other ecosystem services and adaptation approaches (e.g. thinning). Fourth, it examines interactions of climate change with management. Fifth, remote sensing data and tools are central to the work and lay the foundation for further relevance of NASA science to national and regional policy issues. Sixth, it is strongly applied, using an "end-to-end" climate change research approach that includes: 1) two workshops with collaborators to improve the relevance of the scenarios and analyses and communicate the findings; 2) a novel workshop with writers and philosophers to explore the broader implications of our research to society; and 3) incorporation of our findings into U.S. Forest Service sponsored decision support software.

2015 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Poster(s)

• Remote sensing maps of post-fire forest structure facilitate the modeling and mapping of Lewis's woodpecker nesting habitat   --   (Jody Vogeler, Zhiqiang Yang, Warren Cohen)   [abstract]

2013 NASA Terrestrial Ecology Science Team Meeting Poster(s)

• Tradeoffs among carbon and other ecosystem services in managed forest landscapes   --   (Thomas A. Spies, Mark Harmon, Warren B. Cohen, Anita Morzillo, Robert E Kennedy, Jeff Kline, Brenda McComb)   [abstract]

More details may be found in the following project profile(s):

• NASA Terrestrial Ecology (TE) Project Profile