Helmuth, Brian: University of South Carolina (Project Lead)
Project Funding:
2007 - 2012
NRA: 2006 NASA: Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science
Funded by NASA
Abstract:
Our goals in this project are thus to use R/S data and GCM products to develop weekly, seasonal, decadal, and centennial scale ecological forecast, hindcast, and nowcast maps of body temperature, biogeographic distribution and ecological risk level for dominant ecosystem architect species in the coastal zone. We will then compare these predictions against current and historical observations of shifts in species range boundaries of key architectural species (including an important invasive species). Once validated against data from recent time, we will use our models to predict future patterns resulting from climate change, and deeper into evolutionary time when ecological data are lacking. Our approach thus provides a framework for predicting the body temperature of key intertidal species based on remote sensing data. Because these species drive the biodiversity of much of the world’s coastlines we will be able to predict patterns of biodiversity that result from patterns of mortality and species range shifts of these key architectural species. Moreover, one species, Mytilus galloprovincialis, has been identified as an aggressive invasive and an important application of our forecasting tools will be the prediction of shifts in its geographic range within the next 50 to 100 years as a result of climate change. Importantly, our modeling tools will also be used to develop a MODIS data assimilation product for converting MODIS pixel values into estimates of ecological risk to ecosystem architect species on 1 to 4 km spatial scales along the world’s coastlines.
Publications:
Berke, S. K., Mahon, A. R., Lima, F. P., Halanych, K. M., Wethey, D. S., Woodin, S. A. 2010. Range shifts and species diversity in marine ecosystem engineers: patterns and predictions for European sedimentary habitats. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 19(2), 223-232. DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00509.x
Brannock, P., Hilbish, T. 2010. Hybridization results in high levels of sterility and restricted introgression between invasive and endemic marine blue mussels. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 406, 161-171. DOI: 10.3354/meps08522
Brannock, P., Roberts, M., Hilbish, T. 2013. Ubiquitous heteroplasmy in Mytilus spp. resulting from disruption in doubly uniparental inheritance regulation. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 480, 131-143. DOI: 10.3354/meps10228
Brannock, P., Wethey, D., Hilbish, T. 2009. Extensive hybridization with minimal introgression in Mytilus galloprovincialis and M. trossulus in Hokkaido, Japan. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 383, 161-171. DOI: 10.3354/meps07995
Colvard, N. B., Carrington, E., Helmuth, B. 2014. Temperature-dependent photosynthesis in the intertidal alga Fucus gardneri and sensitivity to ongoing climate change. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 458, 6-12. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2014.05.001
do Rosario Gomes, H., Goes, J. I., Matondkar, S. G. P., Buskey, E. J., Basu, S., Parab, S., Thoppil, P. 2014. Massive outbreaks of Noctiluca scintillans blooms in the Arabian Sea due to spread of hypoxia. Nature Communications. 5(1). DOI: 10.1038/ncomms5862
Fly, E. K., Hilbish, T. J. 2012. Physiological energetics and biogeographic range limits of three congeneric mussel species. Oecologia. 172(1), 35-46. DOI: 10.1007/s00442-012-2486-6
Fly, E. K., Hilbish, T. J., Wethey, D. S., Rognstad, R. L. 2015. Physiology and Biogeography: The Response of European Mussels (Mytilusspp.) to Climate Change. American Malacological Bulletin. 33(1), 136-149. DOI: 10.4003/006.033.0111
Fly, E. K., Monaco, C. J., Pincebourde, S., Tullis, A. 2012. The influence of intertidal location and temperature on the metabolic cost of emersion in Pisaster ochraceus. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 422-423, 20-28. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2012.04.007
Goes, J. I., Gomes, H. D. R. 2016. An Ecosystem in Transition: The Emergence of Mixotrophy in the Arabian Sea in: Aquatic Microbial Ecology and Biogeochemistry: A Dual Perspective. Springer International Publishing, 155-170. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-30259-1_13
Gomes, H. D. R., deRada, S., Goes, J. I., Chai, F. 2016. Examining features of enhanced phytoplankton biomass in the Bay of Bengal using a coupled physical-biological model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 121(7), 5112-5133. DOI: 10.1002/2015jc011508
Helmuth, B., Choi, F., Matzelle, A., Torossian, J. L., Morello, S. L., Mislan, K. A. S., Yamane, L., Strickland, D., Szathmary, P. L., Gilman, S. E., Tockstein, A., Hilbish, T. J., Burrows, M. T., Power, A. M., Gosling, E., Mieszkowska, N., Harley, C. D., Nishizaki, M., Carrington, E., Menge, B., Petes, L., Foley, M. M., Johnson, A., Poole, M., Noble, M. M., Richmond, E. L., Robart, M., Robinson, J., Sapp, J., Sones, J., Broitman, B. R., Denny, M. W., Mach, K. J., Miller, L. P., O'Donnell, M., Ross, P., Hofmann, G. E., Zippay, M., Blanchette, C., Macfarlan, J. A., Carpizo-Ituarte, E., Ruttenberg, B., Pena Mejia, C. E., McQuaid, C. D., Lathlean, J., Monaco, C. J., Nicastro, K. R., Zardi, G. 2016. Long-term, high frequency in situ measurements of intertidal mussel bed temperatures using biomimetic sensors. Scientific Data. 3(1). DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2016.87
Hilbish, T. J., Brannock, P. M., Jones, K. R., Smith, A. B., Bullock, B. N., Wethey, D. S. 2010. Historical changes in the distributions of invasive and endemic marine invertebrates are contrary to global warming predictions: the effects of decadal climate oscillations. Journal of Biogeography. 37(3), 423-431. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2009.02218.x
Hilbish, T. J., Lima, F. P., Brannock, P. M., Fly, E. K., Rognstad, R. L., Wethey, D. S. 2011. Change and stasis in marine hybrid zones in response to climate warming. Journal of Biogeography. 39(4), 676-687. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02633.x
Hood, R. R., Wiggert, J. D., Naqvi, S. W. A. 2009. Indian Ocean research: Opportunities and challenges in: Indian Ocean Biogeochemical Processes and Ecological Variability: Geophysical Monograph Series. American Geophysical Union, 409-429. DOI: 10.1029/2008gm000714
Huang, K., Derada, S., Xue, H., Xiu, P., Chai, F., Xie, Q., Wang, D. 2015. A 1/8deg coupled biochemical-physical Indian Ocean Regional Model: Physical results and validation. Ocean Dynamics. 65(8), 1121-1142. DOI: 10.1007/s10236-015-0860-8
Iacarella, J. C., Helmuth, B. 2011. Experiencing the salt marsh environment through the foot of Littoraria irrorata: Behavioral responses to thermal and desiccation stresses. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 409(1-2), 143-153. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2011.08.011
Iacarella, J. C., Helmuth, B. 2012. Body temperature and desiccation constrain the activity of Littoraria irrorata within the Spartina alterniflora canopy. Journal of Thermal Biology. 37(1), 15-22. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2011.10.003
Jones, S. J., Southward, A. J., Wethey, D. S. 2011. Climate change and historical biogeography of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 21(7), 716-724. DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00721.x
Kearney, M. R., Matzelle, A., Helmuth, B. 2012. Biomechanics meets the ecological niche: the importance of temporal data resolution. Journal of Experimental Biology. 215(6), 922-933. DOI: 10.1242/jeb.059634
Lima, F. P., Wethey, D. S. 2009. Robolimpets: measuring intertidal body temperatures using biomimetic loggers. Limnology and Oceanography: Methods. 7(5), 347-353. DOI: 10.4319/lom.2009.7.347
Lima, F. P., Wethey, D. S. 2012. Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming. Nature Communications. 3(1). DOI: 10.1038/ncomms1713
Matzelle, A. J., Sara, G., Montalto, V., Zippay, M., Trussell, G. C., Helmuth, B. 2015. A Bioenergetics Framework for Integrating the Effects of Multiple Stressors: Opening a 'Black Box' in Climate Change Research. American Malacological Bulletin. 33(1), 150-160. DOI: 10.4003/006.033.0107
Matzelle, A., Montalto, V., Sara, G., Zippay, M., Helmuth, B. 2014. Dynamic Energy Budget model parameter estimation for the bivalve Mytilus californianus: Application of the covariation method. Journal of Sea Research. 94, 105-110. DOI: 10.1016/j.seares.2014.01.009
Mislan, K. A. S., Blanchette, C. A., Broitman, B. R., Washburn, L. 2011. Spatial variability of emergence, splash, surge, and submergence in wave-exposed rocky-shore ecosystems. Limnology and Oceanography. 56(3), 857-866. DOI: 10.4319/lo.2011.56.3.0857
Mislan, K. A. S., Helmuth, B., Wethey, D. S. 2014. Geographical variation in climatic sensitivity of intertidal mussel zonation. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 23(7), 744-756. DOI: 10.1111/geb.12160
Mislan, K. A. S., Wethey, D. S. 2011. Gridded meteorological data as a resource for mechanistic macroecology in coastal environments. Ecological Applications. 21(7), 2678-2690. DOI: 10.1890/10-2049.1
Mislan, K. A. S., Wethey, D. S. 2015. A biophysical basis for patchy mortality during heat waves. Ecology. 96(4), 902-907. DOI: 10.1890/14-1219.1
Moisan, T. A., Mitchell, B. G. 2001. UV absorption by mycosporine-like amino acids in Phaeocystis antarctica Karsten induced by photosynthetically available radiation. Marine Biology. 138(1), 217-227. DOI: 10.1007/s002270000424
Monaco, C. J., Helmuth, B. 2011. Tipping Points, Thresholds and the Keystone Role of Physiology in Marine Climate Change Research in: Advances in Marine Biology: Advances in Marine Biology Volume 60. Elsevier, 123-160. DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-12-385529-9.00003-2
Monaco, C. J., Wethey, D. S., Helmuth, B. 2016. Thermal sensitivity and the role of behavior in driving an intertidal predator-prey interaction. Ecological Monographs. 86(4), 429-447. DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1230
Rognstad, R., Wethey, D., Hilbish, T. 2014. Connectivity and population repatriation: limitations of climate and input into the larval pool. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 495, 175-183. DOI: 10.3354/meps10590
Seabra, R., Wethey, D. S., Santos, A. M., Lima, F. P. 2011. Side matters: Microhabitat influence on intertidal heat stress over a large geographical scale. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 400(1-2), 200-208. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2011.02.010
Sorte, C. J., Jones, S. J., Miller, L. P. 2011. Geographic variation in temperature tolerance as an indicator of potential population responses to climate change. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 400(1-2), 209-217. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2011.02.009
Sousa, L. L., Seabra, R., Wethey, D. S., Xavier, R., Queiroz, N., Zenboudji, S., Lima, F. P. 2012. Fate of a climate-driven colonisation: Demography of newly established populations of the limpet Patella rustica Linnaeus, 1758, in northern Portugal. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 438, 68-75. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2012.09.005
Sutton, J., Lakshmi, V. 2017. From Space to the Rocky Intertidal: Using NASA MODIS Sea Surface Temperature and NOAA Water Temperature to Predict Intertidal Logger Temperature. Remote Sensing. 9(2), 162. DOI: 10.3390/rs9020162
Wethey, D. S., Brin, L. D., Helmuth, B., Mislan, K. A. S. 2011. Predicting intertidal organism temperatures with modified land surface models. Ecological Modelling. 222(19), 3568-3576. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.08.019
Wethey, D. S., Woodin, S. A., Hilbish, T. J., Jones, S. J., Lima, F. P., Brannock, P. M. 2011. Response of intertidal populations to climate: Effects of extreme events versus long term change. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 400(1-2), 132-144. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2011.02.008
Woodin, S. A., Hilbish, T. J., Helmuth, B., Jones, S. J., Wethey, D. S. 2013. Climate change, species distribution models, and physiological performance metrics: predicting when biogeographic models are likely to fail. Ecology and Evolution. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.680
Woodin, S. A., Volkenborn, N., Pilditch, C. A., Lohrer, A. M., Wethey, D. S., Hewitt, J. E., Thrush, S. F. 2016. Same pattern, different mechanism: Locking onto the role of key species in seafloor ecosystem process. Scientific Reports. 6(1). DOI: 10.1038/srep26678
Woodin, S. A., Wethey, D. S., Dubois, S. F. 2014. Population structure and spread of the polychaete Diopatra biscayensis along the French Atlantic coast: Human-assisted transport by-passes larval dispersal. Marine Environmental Research. 102, 110-121. DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2014.05.006
Woodin, S. A., Wethey, D. S., Volkenborn, N. 2010. Infaunal Hydraulic Ecosystem Engineers: Cast of Characters and Impacts. Integrative and Comparative Biology. 50(2), 176-187. DOI: 10.1093/icb/icq031
ZIPPAY, M. L., HELMUTH, B. 2012. Effects of temperature change on mussel,Mytilus. Integrative Zoology. 7(3), 312-327. DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-4877.2012.00310.x
2008 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Posters
- Feeling the heat: the feeding behavior and growth of Nucella ostrina in response to temperature
-- (Lauren A. Yamane, Sarah E. Gilman, Brian Helmuth)
[abstract]
- Patterns of Potential Temperature Risk During Intertidal Emergence in Different Tide Regimes
-- (Katherine Allison Smith, David Wethey, Brian Helmuth)
[abstract]
- Intertidal Biological - Climatological Studies : Results From Use of MODIS Data, in Situ Observations and Model Predictions
-- (Venkat Lakshmi, Srinivas Chintalapati, Brian Helmuth, Christel Purvis, David Wethey, Sarah Woodin, Thomas J Hilbish)
[abstract]
More details may be found in the following project profile(s):
