Projecting the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests (1851-2100)
Justin
P
Fisk, University of New Hampshire, justin.fisk@unh.edu
(Presenting)
George
C
Hurtt, University of New Hampshire, george.hurtt@unh.edu
Jeffrey
Q
Chambers, Tulane University, chambers@tulane.edu
Hongcheng
Zeng, University of Windsor, zenghc@uwindsor.ca
In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Estimates of the carbon emissions resulting from single storms range as high as ~100 Tg C, an amount equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink in forest trees. Recent studies have estimated the historic regional carbon emissions from hurricane activity using an empirically based approach. Here, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by gridded disturbance estimates of historic hurricane tracks and future scenarios to predict the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests. Model estimates compare well to previous empirically based estimates and predict mean annual biomass loss of 26 Tg C yr-1 (range 0 to ~225 Tg C yr-1) resulting from hurricanes during the period 1851-2000. In addition, we find a regional carbon sink throughout much of the 20th century resulting from forest recovery following a peak in hurricane activity during the late 19th century exceeding biomass loss. We investigate a range of future scenarios based on the potential link between increased sea surface temperature and changes to hurricane frequency and intensity. We find the potential for substantial increases in emissions from hurricane mortality and reductions in regional carbon stocks. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests of the eastern U.S.
Presentation Type: Poster
Poster Session: Carbon Cycle Science
NASA TE Funded Awards Represented:
Moore, Berrien
Advancing Our Understanding of the Earth System Through Coupled Carbon-Climate Modeling and Observations