Understanding and predicting continental-scale disturbances with prognostic and diagnostic models
Cristina
Milesi, CSU Monterey Bay, cristina.milesi@gmail.com
Jennifer
Dungan, NASA ARC, jdungan@mail.arc.nasa.gov
Cindy
Schimdt, San Jose State University, cschimdt@mail.arc.nasa.gov
Weile
Wang, CSU Monterey Bay, weile.wang@gmail.com
Ramakrisna
Nemani, NASA ARC, rama.nemani@nasa.gov
(Presenting)
In this study we focus on the bark beetle infestations of the forests of the western USA using existing NASA models and data to define a generalized method of assessing terrestrial ecosystem disturbance forcing factors, thresholds and non-linear responses, ecosystem response to disturbance, and disturbance predictability in climate change scenarios.
Our overall approach encompasses the analysis of ecosystem processes (defined here as ensemble model simulations of carbon flux, water flux and state, and derived stress metrics), relating them to estimates of bark beetle extent from aerial detection survey data and remote sensing techniques, and simulating future bark beetle trajectories with prognostic model ensembles driven by climate change scenarios. Here we present preliminary results of the ensemble modeling of ecosystem processes and MODIS-derived extent of beetle infestation over Colorado.
Presentation Type: Poster
Poster Session: Carbon Cycle Science
NASA TE Funded Awards Represented:
Nemani, Ramakrishna
Understanding and predicting continental-scale disturbances with prognostic and diagnostic models: bark beetle outbreaks in North America