Potential impact of climate change on the Intra-Americas Sea: A dynamic downscaling of the CMIP5 model projections

Yanyun Liu, University of Miami, yanyun.liu@noaa.gov
Sang-Ki Lee, NOAA, sang-ki.lee@noaa.gov
David B. Enfield, University of Miami, denfield@rsmas.miami.edu
Barbara A. Muhling, NOAA, barbara.muhling@noaa.gov
John T. Lamkin, NOAA-Fisheries, john.lamkin@noaa.gov
Mitchell A. Roffer, Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, roffers@bellsouth.net (Presenter)
Frank E. Muller-Karger, University of South Florida, carib@marine.usf.edu

This is the fourth and final year of our project that focuses on enhancing the management of multiple important highly migratory pelagic fish species in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and surrounding waters, with particular focus on Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) and other highly migratory species (HMS) of tunas and billfishes in the Gulf of Mexico area for spawning and larvae, and the north Atlantic Ocean including the GoM for adults. This year we focused on habitat definition of the fish in the North Atlantic Ocean using cluster analysis and ordination techniques, as well as, using the MOM-TOPEZ biogeochemical model. Mean conditions were derived from temperature and salinity fields initialized from the World Ocean Atlas, integrated for 500 years using CORE2 surface flux fields with the model. After 500 years of spin-up they were integrated for 1948-2009 using real-time surface flux fields. The environmental variables were derived by season and year. These variables are important for the physiology of the fish and needed to evaluate varying habitats related to commercial catches. Ward clustering (Matlab) was used to define 15 pelagic habitats in terms of environmental characteristics and the spatial extent (km2 ) of each habitat was calculated by year, season, and mean latitude in ArcGIS™. Ordination techniques (PCO) where used to highlight habitats that varied synchronously or inversely through time. PCO was also used to highlight years which were very similar or different to each other. This allows us to evaluate apparent changes in catch location with environmental variability. Examples of the result will be presented. We are looking for correlations between various climate indices and spatial extent of each habitat, as well as, mean latitude by season. We are presently evaluating AMO, NAO, and ENSO. But are looking for suggestions.

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Theme 1: Tracking habitat change through new integrative approaches and products   (Mon 1:30 PM)

Associated Project(s): 

• Roffer, Mitch: Management and conservation of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) and other highly migratory fish in the Gulf of Mexico under IPCC climate change scenarios: A study using regional climate and habitat models. ...details

Poster Location ID: 48