Management And Conservation Of Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus Thynnus) And Other Highly Migratory Fish In The Gulf Of Mexico Under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios: A Study Using Regional Climate And Habitat Models

Mitchell Alan Roffer, Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, roffers@bellsouth.net (Presenter)
John T Lamkin, NOAA-Fisheries, john.lamkin@noaa.gov
Barbara Muhling, NOAA, barbara.muhling@noaa.gov
Frank Muller-Karger, University of South Florida, carib@marine.usf.edu
Sang-Ki Lee, Univ. Miami CIMAS, sang-ki.lee@noaa.gov
Yanyun Liu, Univ, Miami CIMAS, yanyun.liu@noaa.gov

This is the fourth and final year of our project that focuses on enhancing the management of multiple important highly migratory pelagic fish species in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and surrounding waters, with particular focus on Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) and other highly migratory species (HMS) of tunas and billfishes in the Gulf of Mexico area for spawning and larvae, and the north Atlantic Ocean including the GoM for adults. For the climate modeling, CMIP5 simulations, using the MOM4 model (1900-2100) were downscaled for the GoM and Caribbean Sea (CBN). These were conducted under historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The 20th century simulation (1871-2009) was downscaled for the (GoM) and (CBN) using MOM4 to study natural climate variability on the GoM and CBN. This is important in distinguishing natural variability compared with climate change values and provides a measurement of uncertainty of sst in the GoM. The results show that both the Loop Current and Caribbean Current are significantly reduced during the 21st century, consistent with a similar rate of reduction in the AMOC. Habitat models were generated for larvae and adults of the HMS and analyses show a likely substantial loss of spawning habitat for bluefin tuna, with a gain in habitat for skipjack tuna, yellowfin tuna and blackfin tuna. This suggests that a change in species dominance in the GoM is likely. Transition of tools and techniques have been completed. Final work on comparing the output of the biogeochemical downscaled models with the habitat models will be completed over the next few months.

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Theme 1: Tracking habitat change through new integrative approaches and products   (Mon 1:30 PM)

Associated Project(s): 

• Roffer, Mitch: Management and conservation of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) and other highly migratory fish in the Gulf of Mexico under IPCC climate change scenarios: A study using regional climate and habitat models. ...details

Poster Location ID: 49