Climate-induced shifts of pelagic habitat revealed through seascape-based model intercomparison

Maria T Kavanaugh, Woods Hole, mkavanaugh@whoi.edu (Presenter)
Ivan Lima, WHOI, ivan@whoi.edu
Scott Doney, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, sdoney@whoi.edu

The open ocean is a complex system in which pattern and process interact to provide feedbacks on multiple scales of spatial, temporal, and biological organization. Understanding and modeling pelagic ecosystem responses and feedbacks to global change requires an objective framework to: (1) track responses of ecosystems embedded in a dynamic environment; and (2) objectively compare regional responses to reveal potential mechanisms.

Satellite-derived seascapes represent aggregates of pelagic habitat in space and time, characterizing regional heterogeneity of the planktonic assemblage, and biophysical and/or biogeochemical properties. Objectively-determined seascapes classified from synoptic satellite data follow natural discontinuities (e.g. fronts, shelf-breaks), characterize distinct microbial assemblage and biogeochemical functioning, and allow for dynamic boundaries on both seasonal and interannual scales. We classified seascapes across 15 marine ecosystem models that are participating in the Marine Ecosystem and/or Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (MarMIP and CMIP5, respectively). These models represent a wide array of plankton functional type diversity, parameterization, and underlying general circulation models. Model seascapes were classified from a reference multivariate distribution of satellite-derived phytoplankton carbon, sea surface temperature and photosynthetically active radiation; time series were created from historical and future (RCP 8.5) model output to illuminate effects of climate forcing on pelagic seascape structure. While rates and timing of subtropical seascape expansion vary among models, the decline of productive subpolar environments was somewhat consistent. By improving the parameterization of marine ecosystem models, the ongoing research will advance our understanding of the marine carbon cycle. However, this research will also transform our understanding of marine ecosystems themselves, e.g. how different environmental conditions lead to changes in biodiversity or biome shifts

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Theme 1: Tracking habitat change through new integrative approaches and products   (Mon 1:30 PM)

Associated Project(s): 

• Muller-Karger, Frank: National Marine Sanctuaries as Sentinel Sites for a Demonstration Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) ...details

Poster Location ID: 2