3-D Simulation of Boreal Forests: Structure and Dynamics in Complex Terrain

Ksenia Brazhnik, University of Virginia, ksenia@virginia.edu (Presenter)
Herman H. Shugart, University of Virginia, hhs@virginia.edu

We introduce a new, spatially-explicit vegetation model SIBBORK for simulation of the SIBerian BOReal forest in 3-dimensions on real terrain. This model was developed for the purpose of investigating ecosystem changes in response to abrupt disturbances, such as wildfires, and gradual perturbations, including warming associated with climate change. Greater warming has been observed in central Siberia than in any other biome, making the Siberian boreal forest an important early warning ecosystem for understanding how climate change may affect global forests. SIBBORK is specifically tailored for the simulation of boreal ecosystems, and includes representations of permafrost and a complex light regime. A unique feature of SIBBORK is the fine-scale resolution of current and potential future environmental conditions within the 3-D spatial domain of the simulation. The differential distributions of species and disturbances across the landscape are strongly linked with topographic, climatic, and edaphic gradients. Modifications to site conditions are likely to propagate changes in species composition and productivity at that location. Therefore, explicitly resolving landscape heterogeneity facilitates a more realistic prediction of forest composition, and furthers our understanding of how the biodiversity and land cover of the boreal ecosystem may change in response to altered ambient conditions. SIBBORK additionally enables the identification of smaller scale niches as potential refugia for species in areas where the coarse-scale ambient conditions are forecast to become less favorable over the next century. The ability to accurately predict current and future forest structure and dynamics provides insight into vegetation responses to changing environmental conditions and disturbance regimes at different spatial and temporal scales.
We focus on the Siberian boreal forest, however, SIBBORK can be easily tailored toward investigation of dynamics of other forest ecosystems using silvicultural information and global datasets. Furthermore, SIBBORK model output can be used to predict expected signal returns from active (LIDAR, RADAR) remote sensing instruments.

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Theme 1: Tracking habitat change through new integrative approaches and products   (Mon 1:30 PM)

Associated Project(s): 

• Related Activity: Related Activity or Previously Funded CC&E Activity not listed ...details

Poster Location ID: 1