Understanding the past to predict the future: sea level rise, wetland migration and impacts to the habitat of a critically endangered frog

Daniel Davila, University of Puerto Rico, coquidanny@gmail.com (Presenter)
Mei Yu, University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras, meiyu@ites.upr.edu

Historically, in Puerto Rico coastal wetlands were heavily impacted by land use changes related to agricultural activities. Canals were instrumental in draining coastal wetland systems for the use of land in the sugar cane industry. A shift in the economy from agriculture towards an industrial base after the Second World War resulted in many coastal areas reverting to their wetland condition and some were invaded by grasses and herbaceous vegetation but many were destroyed by urban development .In this study, the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model was applied to assess the potential response of these altered systems to sea level rise scenarios of 0.5, 1, 1.5 and 2 meters in the year 2100, if the drainage canals affect the outcome and if the population of an endemic and endangered frog, Eleutherodactylus juanariveroi, is under imminent threat.

Results indicate a gradual loss of undeveloped dryland, inland freshwater marsh and salt marsh with considerable increases in mangrove and estuarine open water under the 1, 1.5, and 2 meters scenarios. Ocean beach is greatly reduced under all scenarios by 2025 with subsequent recoveries to less than 75% of the original landcover area. There were no changes in the wetland type cover of the endangered frog habitat, although estuarine wetland types reached the habitat northern limit. The buffer analysis around the drainage canals suggests that the rate of change is faster in the 20m buffer.

Sea level rise will bring forth changes in the wetland type distributions in the coastal areas of our research area. The drainage canal system will facilitate the movement of estuarine wetland types into inland palustrine systems. The model suggests that the endangered frog habitat will not suffer changes before 2100. Nevertheless, water chemistry may change as estuarine wetland types move adjacent to the north and east of the freshwater marsh.

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Theme 4: Human influence on global ecosystems   (Mon 4:30 PM)

Associated Project(s): 

• Yu, Mei: Vulnerability and adaptive management of tropical coastal wetlands ...details

Poster Location ID: 42