Determining Historic Patterns of Wildfire for Siberia as a Basis for Estimating the Impacts of Fire on Carbon Cycling, Quantifying Past Fire/Climate Interactions, and Projecting Future Fire/Climate Change Impacts

Susan G. Conard, US Forest Service (emeritus), sgconard@aol.com (Presenter)
Don Cahoon, B.J. Stocks Wildfire Investigations, cahoonski@gmail.com
Wei Min Hao, US Forest Service, whao@fs.fed.us
Elena Kukavskaya, Sukachev Institute of Forest, kea-fire@mail.ru
Alex Petkov, US Forest Service, apetkov@fs.fed.us
Amber Soja, National Institute of Aerospace / NASA LaRC, amber.j.soja@nasa.gov
Brian J. Stocks, B.J. Stocks Wildfire Investigations, brianstocks@sympatico.ca
Anatoly I. Sukhinin, V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, boss@ksc.krasn.ru
Thomas Swetnam, University of Arizona, tswetnam@ltrr.arizona.edu

Wildfires are the dominant disturbance regime in the boreal zone, burning 10 to 25 million hectares per year. These fires are a significant source of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols. Fire activity in the boreal zone is projected to increase substantially as climate changes. Projecting the impacts of changing climate on future fire regimes and the interactions of fire with carbon storage and atmospheric chemistry under a changing climate requires baseline data on historic fire activity. We are developing a 30-year record of burned areas for Siberia by combining burn perimeter data reconstructed from AVHRR GAC imagery for 1980-2000 with AVHRR LAC imagery from 1996-present and recent MODIS data (2002-present). Landsat ETM imagery is being used for calibration across scales and platforms. We will integrate these data with historic fire weather, emissions data, and vegetation data to estimate fuel consumption, fire severity, and emissions from fires in Siberia from 1980 to 2010. We will also use dendrochronology data to reconstruct past burned areas and fire regimes for selected sub-regions over hundreds of years. These data will allow us to place the 30-year satellite-based data in context of longer time scales. The historical relationships derived through this work will provide a basis for projecting the future effects of changing climate on fire patterns, emissions and carbon cycle in Siberia. This poster reports recent progress in four areas: development of the long-term satellite record, calibration across scales, dendrochronology sampling, and assessment of different vegetation mapping products.

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Global Change Impact & Vulnerability   (Tue 11:30 AM)

Associated Project(s): 

• Hao, Wei Min: Integrating Historic Patterns of Wildfire, Emissions, and Climate for Siberia as a Basis for Estimating the Impacts of Fire on Carbon Cycling, Quantifying Past Fire/Climate Interactions, and Projecting Future Fire/Climate Change Impacts ...details

Poster Location ID: 145