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Modeling Coupled Climate and Urban Land Use Change in the United States

Forrest Melton, CSUMB / NASA ARC, forrest.s.melton@nasa.gov (Presenter)
Scott J. Goetz, Woods Hole Research Center, sgoetz@whrc.org
Weile Wang, CSUMB / NASA ARC, weile.wang@gmail.com
Cristina Milesi, CSUMB / NASA ARC, cristina.milesi@gmail.com
David Theobald, Colorado State university, davet@nrel.colostate.edu
Patrick Jantz, Woods Hole Research Center, pjantz@whrc.org
Ramakrishna R. Nemani, NASA ARC, rama.nemani@nasa.gov

Urban land cover and associated impervious surface area are expected to increase by as much as 50% over the next few decades across substantial portions of the coterminous U.S. In combination with urban expansion, increases in temperature and changes in precipitation are expected to impact ecosystems through changes in productivity, disturbance and hydrological properties. In this study we use land cover predictions from SERGoM through the year 2100 and climate projections (Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3) for large watersheds of the eastern United States to explore the impacts of urbanization and climate change of hydrologic dynamics (runoff) and vegetation carbon uptake (gross productivity). We use the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS), an ecosystem modeling framework, to simulate the influence of potential adaptation actions associated with land use. We present the modeling approach, and the component and cumulative impacts of climate and land use changes forecast to occur in the region. We also present results from an evaluation of simulated scenarios to characterize the mitigation potential of various best management practices for land use planning, such as urban afforestation and replacement of asphalt with permeable surfaces.

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Global Change Impact & Vulnerability   (Tue 11:30 AM)

Associated Project(s): 

  • Goetz, Scott: Modeling Strategies for Adaptation to Linked Climate and Land Use Change in the United States ...details

Poster Location ID: 239

 


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