Forecasting Changes in Habitat Use by Bowhead Whales in Response to Arctic Climate Change: Integration of Physical-Biological Models with Satellite, Biological Survey and Oceanographic Data

Dan Pendleton, NOAA, dan.pendleton@noaa.gov (Presenter)
Eli Holmes, NOAA, eli.holmes@noaa.gov
Jinlun Zhang, University of Washington, zhang@apl.washington.edu
Megan Ferguson, National Marine Mammal Laboratory, megan.ferguson@noaa.gov

The effects of climate change are projected to be disproportionately pronounced in polar regions, where changes in the concentration and extent of sea ice will have pronounced effects on the spatio-temporal dynamics of the marine planktonic ecosystem. The endangered bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) is the largest animal in the Arctic, yet it feeds on some of the smallest Arctic animals, zooplankton. Changes in the abundance or distribution of zooplankton due to changes in sea ice would have direct effects on bowhead whales. In addition, loss of Arctic sea ice also has the potential to increase negative anthropogenic impacts as areas become more accessible to vessels, fisheries, and oil exploration. Our objective is to improve understanding of how the Arctic planktonic ecosystem affects the regional distribution of bowhead whales and to develop forecasts of long-term changes in their distribution under different Arctic climate change scenarios.



Our work will utilize decades of bowhead sighting data, satellite derived sea surface temperature and chlorophyll, and output from BIOMAS – a fully coupled 3D biology/sea ice/ocean model adapted to the Arctic Ocean. BIOMAS generates hourly estimates of three zooplankton components (microzooplankton, mesozooplankton/copepods, and predatory zooplankton). BIOMAS will be used to develop forecasts of the spatio-temporal distribution of zooplankton and sea ice extent under Arctic climate change scenarios. Satellite and modeled environmental data will then be used to drive species distribution models (SDMs) for bowhead whales in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.



Two types of SDM will be used: boosted regression trees and maximum entropy density estimation. Output from these models will be used to explore changes in bowhead whale habitat suitability under different climate change scenarios and to help evaluate strategies for minimizing human-whale interactions as sea-ice extent and whale populations change in the coming decades.

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Global Change Impact & Vulnerability   (Tue 11:30 AM)

Associated Project(s): 

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Poster Location ID: 275