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Forecasting Future Land Use and Hydrology: A Case Study of the Upper Delaware River Watershed
Scott
J.
Goetz, Woods Hole Research Center, sgoetz@whrc.org
(Presenter)
We used satellite imagery to map recent land use change patterns in an approximately 8,000-km2 area encompassing the Upper Delaware River watershed and used these data to calibrate a predictive spatial model of urban growth rates and patterns in spatial form . With local stakeholders, we developed various future scenarios of growth to simulate the influence of different land use policies and land management practices, incorporating a variety of environmental, transportation, and other data sources. We generated forecasts of future urban growth patterns, including low-density residential development, under scenarios featuring current growth trends, increased growth, and increased conservation. These future scenarios form the basis for a number of environmental assessments of urbanization in the region. We incorporated the forecasts into a hydrologic model to examine the implications of urbanization on hydrologic factors—runoff, baseflow, and sediment loads—that are linked to water quality and aquatic biota management priorities for the watershed. The outcomes demonstrate how the spatial patterns of urbanization are likely to influence hydrologic dynamics in the future, notably by increasing runoff and sediment loads while decreasing baseflow under scenarios with greater development and associated impervious cover. The approaches, tools, and data sets we employ here are useful not only because they produce forecasts in easily understood map form, but also because they are well documented and widely available to resource managers, policymakers, and a range of other stakeholders for diverse watershed applications, including mitigation, restoration, and adaptation objectives. Presentation Type: Poster Session: Science in Support of Decision Making (Wed 10:00 AM) Associated Project(s):
Poster Location ID: 162
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