Impacts of altered ecosystem disturbance rates on climate change mitigation strategies within an integrated assessment model.

Yannick le Page, Joint Global Change Research Institute, yannick.lepage@pnnl.gov (Presenter)
George Hurtt, University of Maryland, gchurtt@umd.edu
Allison Thomson, Joint Global Change Research Institute, allison.thomson@pnnl
Ben Bond-Lamberty, Pacific NW National Lab, bondlamberty@pnl.gov
Marshall Wise, Joint Global Change Research Institute, marshall.wise@pnnl.gov
Katherine Calvin, Joint Global Change Research Institute, katherine.calvin@pnnl.gov
Justin Fisk, University of Maryland, fisk@umd.edu
Jae Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research Institute, jae@pnnl.gov
Anthony C Janetos, Joint Global Change Research Institute, anthony.janetos@pnnl.gov

Understanding the interaction between the terrestrial carbon and human economic cycles is essential to explore climate change mitigation strategies. If ecosystem will store less carbon in the future, for example, then attaining a particular 21st-century climate forcing target becomes more difficult, implying a reduction in anthropogenic emissions. Coupling economic integrated assessment models (IAMs) to dynamic ecosystem models is thus fundamental to account for future changes in the carbon cycle, but IAM carbon cycle modules often do not represent such important processes as disturbances or climate feedbacks. Here we outline an ongoing project to couple the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), with a focus on potential changes in disturbance rates (fires, hurricanes). As a first step, we evaluate the impacts of such changes with both models uncoupled. Our results suggest that a moderate increase in disturbances could significantly reduce the amount of carbon stored in forests. In GCAM, under a carbon emission constraint policy, this results in global economic changes – including energy generation shifts towards low polluting technologies – to compensate for increased disturbance emissions. Altered disturbance rates could thus be an important factor to account for in projecting the carbon cycle and exploring the efficiency of mitigation policies. A fully coupled model will provide more insights into the sensitivity of climate change mitigation pathways to the carbon cycle.

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Science in Support of Decision Making   (Wed 10:00 AM)

Associated Project(s): 

• Hurtt, George: Modeling the Impacts of Major Forest Disturbances on the Earth's Coupled Carbon-Climate System, and the Capacity of Forests to Meet Future Demands for Wood, Fuel, and Fiber ...details

Poster Location ID: 190