Developing High-Resolution Thermal Stress Indices To Enhance Regional Coral Bleaching Forecasts Through NOAA's Coral Reef Watch Decision-Support-System: Cold Stress Case Study

Maria Vega-Rodriguez, University of South Florida, mariavegarod@mail.usf.edu
Frank E Muller-Karger, University of South FLorida, carib@marine.usf.edu (Presenter)
Jianke Li, NOAA, jianke.li@noaa.gov
C Mark Eakin, NOAA, mark.eakin@noaa.gov
Liane Guild, NASA Ames, liane.s.guild@nasa.gov
Chuanmin Hu, University of South Florida, hu@marine.usf.edu
Liu Gang, NOAA, gang.liu@noaa.gov
Lynds Susan, University of Colorado, susan.lynds@colorado.edu
Nemani Ramakrishna, NASA Ames, rama.nemani@nasa.gov
Heron Scott, NOAA, scott.heron@noaa.gov
Quiles Gabriel, University of South Florida, gaby.quiles@gmail.com
Lirman Diego, University of Miami, dlirman@rsmas.miami.edu
Ruzicka Robert, Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, rob.ruzicka@myfwc.com

A collaborative effort between NASA, NOAA, and academic research partners has been funded by NASA and NOAA to seek solutions to enhance NOAA's Coral Reef Watch’s (CRW) sea surface temperature data products. It will assess the value of SST data from the MODIS and AVHRR satellites at 1 to 11 km spatial resolutions. The NOAA CRW program presently uses operational, near-real-time night-time AVHRR sea surface temperature (SST) data to produce 50 km SST climatologies and various thermal stress indices that include SST anomalies, HotSpots (positive SST anomalies beyond the upper coral thermal threshold) and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW – cumulative thermal stress in a 12-week window), among other products. These products help monitor and forecast coral reef bleaching events globally. Similar indices are now being generated with higher-resolution MODIS and AVHRR satellite imagery by using SST data at 1 to 11 km spatial resolution (see poster by Mark Eakin). Regional 1 km products are being generated for the Caribbean and the Great Barrier Reef to assess the impact of high-resolution data on predicting bleaching due to heat stress.

Anomalously cold temperatures also lead to significant stress and can cause widespread mortality in coral reefs, such as observed in the Florida Keys in January 2010. This project is studying this test case to develop 1 km spatial resolution cold-stress indices. One experimental product is the cold snap index, based on an assessment of the length of time when sea surface temperatures are at or below the winter SST climatology minus one standard deviation. Other indices similar to the 1-km HotSpots and DHW are being designed for consideration. In situ data collected around the Florida Keys in January 2010 are being used to validate these prototype products, together with efforts to discriminate cold water from low temperature values caused by clouds. Methods and preliminary results for the cold snap index are presented along with field validated data and delineating cold water from cloud data.

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Science in Support of Decision Making   (Wed 10:00 AM)

Associated Project(s): 

• Muller-Karger, Frank: A Decision Support System for Ecosystem-Based Management of Tropical Coral Reef Environments ...details

Poster Location ID: 198