Wildland fire threat to the Amur tiger: current levels and future scenarios under the influence of climate change
Tatiana
V
Loboda, University of Maryland Geography Department, tloboda@hermes.geog.umd.edu
(Presenting)
Ivan
A
Csiszar, University of Maryland Geography Department, icsiszar@hermes.geog.umd.edu
Rapid economic development and unprecedented rates of climate change are pushing the limits of ecosystem functioning with a particularly strong impact of global biodiversity. Scientists estimate that even gradual changes in habitat availability driven by warming climate will lead to extinction of a large number of species across various taxa and geographic regions by the end of the 21st century. Changes in frequency of occurrence of natural catastrophic events driven by climate change are likely to contribute to the overall pressure on ecosystems in a non-linear way. With a projected increase in frequency, extent, and severity of wildland fire in the Northern Eurasia over the 21st century, large areas of the only know habitat for a critically endangered Amur tiger are likely to undergo an abrupt and long-term conversion to non-tree dominated landscapes. In this study we use the Fire Threat Model, parameterized to assess the impact of wildland fire on the Amur tiger and its habitat, to evaluate the current and future levels of wildland fire threat under climate change scenarios. Our results show that the presently low threat to the Amur tiger and its habitat will increase up to 20% yearly and 40% during individual months under SRES A2 story line over the southern portion of the tiger distribution which currently contains the highest quality habitat. The greatest increase in fire threat is projected for late summer and fall fire season. We anticipate an increase in the overall regional level of threat as well as the frequency of localized high threat events.
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