Climate-induced change in Siberia: A focused view of fire and weather interactions in the Tuvan Republic.
Amber
Jeanine
Soja, National Institute of Aerospace, resident NASA LaRC, amber.j.soja@nasa.gov
(Presenting)
David
Westberg, Science Systems and Applications Inc., david.j.westberg@nasa.gov
Nadezda
Tchebakova, Sukachev Institute of Forestry, ncheby@forest.akadem.ru
Elena
Parfenova, Sukachev Institute of Forestry, yeti@forest.akadem.ru
Anatoly
Sukhinin, Sukachev Institute of Forestry, boss@ksc.krasn.ru
Paul
Stackhouse, NASA Langley Reserach Center, paul.w.stackhouse@nasa.gov
Galina
Ivanova, Sukachev Institute of Forestry, green@escapenet.ru
Alexandr
Shishikin, Sukachev Institute of Forestry, institute@forest.akadem.ru
Vladislav
Kanzai, State Biosphere Reserve, Uvs-Nuur Hollow, ubsunur@tuva.ru
Wildfire is largely under the control of weather and climate, and increase in fire regimes are predicted (fire season extent, fire frequency, area burned and fire severity) in boreal regions. Atmosphere Ocean General Circulations Models (AOGCM) are in agreement that Siberia is expected to experience warming in excess of 40% above global mean temperature increases by 2100.
Wildfire is a catalyst that serves two basic purposes in boreal forest: 1) a mechanism to maintain stability and diversity in equilibrium with the climate; and 2) a mechanism by which forests move more rapidly towards equilibrium with climate. Our bioclimatic model predicts expansive changes in ecosystems, from a landscape dominated by taiga to a landscape dominated by steppe and forest-steppe. In this work, we focus on the Tuvan Republic, where the initial signs of climate change are expected to occur.
Tuva is located at a vulnerable southern boreal border and is the home of several relic Pinus sylvestris forests. It has been reported that these ecosystems are burning and not being regenerated. Even though, increases in extreme fire seasons are found across Siberia, there is no evidence of increases in fire regimes in Tuva.
However, we suggest fire and weather are currently operating in concert to alter Tuvan forests. First, forests burn, and then weather conditions conducive for regeneration have decreased. January temperature increases have already exceeded those predicted by the 2090 Hadley Centre scenario for south central Siberia. Precipitation has slightly decreased in Tuva, and the growing season length has increased by about 6 to 12 days. Additionally, we find the number of extremely warm days has increased, further increasing potential evapotranspiration. Consequently, several of the relic pine forests have burned (some repeatedly), and natural regeneration is not visible at several sites, even one that had been re-planted on several occasions.
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