George
Hurtt, University of New Hampshire, george.hurtt@unh.edu
(Presenting)
Louise
Parsons
Chini, University of New Hampshire, louise.chini@unh.edu
(Presenting)
Steve
Frolking, University of New Hampshire, steve.frolking@unh.edu
Kees
Klein
Goldewijk, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, kees.klein.goldewijk@mnp.nl
Elke
Stehfest, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, elke.stehfest@mnp.nl
Detlef
van Vuuren, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, detlef.van.vuuren@mnp.nl
Elena
Shevliakova, Princeton GFDL, elena@princeton.edu
In preparation for the IPCC 5th assessment, the international modeling community is developing four Representative Concentration Paths using scenarios developed by four different Integrated Assessment Models. These RCPs will be used as input for model runs by Climate Models such as Earth System Models and EMICs. The diversity of approaches and requirements among both IAMs and ESMs with respect to tracking land-use change presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities. In addition, the dependence of model projections on land-use history presents a challenge for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates in ESMs to the future projections based on IAMs. Our goal is to develop a harmonized set of land-use maps that will smoothly connect historical reconstructions with future projections in the format required by ESMs. Specifically, it will provide consistent global gridded maps of land use activities, recovering lands, and underlying land-use transitions including the effects of wood harvest and shifting cultivation past and future. The strategy will build on the method of Hurtt et al. 2006 and use information on land-use history and future land-use scenarios to develop a harmonized treatment of land use. Specifically it will, use gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.0 1500-2000 (Klein Goldewijk, in prep), aggregated to half degree spatial resolution; use future crop, pasture, and wood harvest data from IAMs 2000-2300; use historical national wood harvest and shifting cultivation estimates from Hurtt et al., 2006; use future climate and CO2 data from IAMs; compute set of gridded maps of land-use and underlying transitions using above inputs following the method of Hurtt et al. 2006, smoothly progressing from past, through present, to future.
NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Active Awards Represented by this Poster: