Effects of land use change on fire, vegetation and wildlife dynamics in arid grasslands of Southern Russia
Maxim
Dubinin, University of Wisconsin, dubinin@wisc.edu
(Presenting)
Anna
Lushchekina, A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences, rusmabcom@gmail.com
Volker
C
Radeloff, University of Wisconsin, radeloff@wisc.edu
Human land use profoundly affects land cover, ecosystem processes, and biodiversity. Institutional changes after the breakdown of the USSR were followed by a strong decrease in livestock numbers and area of plowed lands which led to considerable changes in land use in southern Russia. These changes have significant effects on ecological processes, vegetation dynamics, and distribution as well as on wildlife. The overarching goal of this study is to identify modern dynamics of vegetation and characteristic wildlife in the framework of recent socioeconomic development. Our project focuses on Kalmykia, a republic in southern Russia, where land cover changes are widespread, and where the last European population of saiga antelope is at risk of extinction. Specific research questions are: how much (and why) has land cover and fire regime altered the landscape and what are the interactions between land use, fire, vegetation, and climate and saiga behavior. The analysis is based on TM/ETM+, MODIS, AVHRR satellite data, which are used to quantify both historical (1980 – 2002, Landsat TM/ETM+ and AVHRR) and current (2000 – 2008, MODIS) changes at the landscape level. Initial AVHRR data analysis shows an abrupt increase in burned areas since 1997-1998, likely due to the increased amount of grassy fuels after livestock numbers declined in the mid 1990s decreasing grazing pressure. The increase in fire caused a shift in vegetation from an Artemisia sp. dominated communities to a Stipa sp. dominated ones, which are more adapted to fires. This is important for saiga habitat, as these two types of habitats represent seasonally distinct foraging grounds. Additionally, both the timing and the location of saiga calving events and saiga habitat selection are associated with maximum vegetation vigor proxied by NDVI derived from MODIS data. Our research provides a comprehensive assessment of the complex interactions within grassland ecosystems in southern Russia, and changes in the past, current, and future in response to the institutional change that occurred in the country after 1991. This will contribute to a better understanding of human-natural systems, and will also provide important information for saiga conservation efforts in the southern Russia.
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