Identifying and estimating sources of change in the hydrology of Northern Eurasia
Alexander
Shiklomanov, University of New Hampshire, alex.shiklomanov@unh.edu
(Presenting)
Richard
Lammers, University of New Hampshire, richard.lammers@unh.edu
(Presenting)
Natalia
Agaltseva, Uzbekistan Hydrometeorological Service, natagalt@mail.ru
Charles
Vorosmarty, University of New Hampshire, charles.vorosmarty@unh.edu
Domenik
Wisser, University of New Hampshire, dwisser@ob.sr.unh.edu
Vladimir
Georgievsky, State Hydrological Institute, Russia, ggi2@mailbox.alkor.ru
We present preliminary results of two NASA LCLUC projects focused on the study of hydrological changes in the Northern Eurasian region. Analysis of these changes has been made with a focus on revealing of their possible causes. Using a newly collected and coordinated regional archive of in situ and remote sensing data coupled to hydrological models using land cover/land use and water management information we analyzed changes in annual, monthly and extreme river discharge, precipitation and evapotranspiration across Northern Eurasia to better understand possible causes of hydrological changes. Our domain of interest included Eurasian arctic drainage basin and Central Asia. These two regions display strongly contrasting hydrological processes and human impacts and we show how a common data and modeling toolkit can identify and address our understanding of the the regional changes taking place. The anthropogenic influence was estimated through water use data collected at the State Hydrological Institute, Russia and the Uzbikistan Hydrometeorological Service. The role of human engineering, via reservoir regulation and consumptive water uses due to irrigation, in the terrestrial hydrological cycle was estimated with the updated UNH Water Balance Model (WBMPlus). This model includes i) a reservoir routing module that simulates the operation of large reservoirs and their impacts on river discharge and ii) an irrigation module that simulates the interactions of irrigated areas with components of the hydrological cycle. To explore potential future patterns of change in the hydrology of Northern Eurasia we used projections of climate changes simulated by two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) to drive our hydrological model. Future simulations from the UNH WBMPlus were analyzed along with results from the local hydrological models developed by our partners in Russia and Central Asia.
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