Updated Assessment of Urban Impacts in the Great Lakes Region
Laura
C
Bowling, Purdue University, bowling@purdue.edu
Keith
A
Cherkauer, Purdue University, cherkaue@purdue.edu
(Presenting)
Bryan
C
Pijanowski, Purdue University, bpijanow@purdue.edu
Dev
Niyogi, Purdue University, dniyogi@purdue.edu
Urbanization is altering the global landscape at an unprecedented rate. This form of land cover/land-use change (LCLUC) can significantly reduce infiltration and runoff response times, and alter heat and water vapor fluxes, which can further alter surface-forced regional circulation patterns and modulate precipitation volume and intensity. Land use change forecasts have been completed for the four state study region (IN, IL, WI and MI) in 10 year increments to the year 2050. The model design for IL, WI and MI relied on high quality training areas for similar regions and a demographic model created from state demography offices, US Census forecasts (by state) and historical county census data. Storm track analysis to investigate the effects of land cover and urbanization on precipitation and thunderstorm characteristics around Indianapolis, IN is now complete for summers from 2000-2007. It shows a statistically significant impact from the urban land use on the climatology of the Indianapolis region. Analysis of streamflow records from around the Indianapolis region is also underway to identify significant relationships between hydrology, impervious area and spatial metrics of urban expanse. Integration of projected land-use, regional weather modeling and hydrologic analysis has started with a focus on the state of Wisconsin, looking at the relative significance of climate versus land-use change on regional hydrology. Focusing on large watersheds where urban extent is small, projected climate change over the next 30 years results in larger changes to hydrology than land use change projections for the same time period. Finally, we present our strategy for completing the project by extending our simulations to the entire study domain with a focus on urban effects on regional weather and hydrology.
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