Vulnerability of US National Parks to Land Use and Climate Change and Variability
Andrew
Hansen, Montana State University, hansen@montana.edu
(Presenting)
Steve
Running, University of Montana, swr@ntsg.umt.edu
Cory
Davis, Montana State University, cory.davis3@myportal.montana.edu
Jessica
Haas, University of Montana, jh122132@grizmail.umt.edu
David
Theobald, Colorado State University, davet@nrel.colostate.edu
The US National Park Service (NPS) faces the challenge of maintaining ecosystem function and biodiversity within National Parks in the face of climate and land use change. New satellite and other technologies have increasingly allowed reconstruction for past decades of climate and land use at fine spatial scales and consequences for ecosystem processes such as NPP and fire risk. This study is using these new data sets to better inform the NPS about threats to National Parks. The goal of this study is to assess park vulnerability to current and near-term future climate and land use based on detailed reconstructions and analyses of change and ecological response over the past 50-100 years. Included in the study is a set of approximately 70 US National Parks that was selected based on relatively large size, minor influence of marine ecosystems, and wide representation of major ecoregions. The larger ecosystem encompassing each park was delineated based on watersheds, contiguity of major habitat types, habitat use of large-scale species, and human land use. Potential drivers (climate and land use), ecosystem response (NPP, stream flow, fire risk, habitat area), and biodiversity response are being quantified across these greater ecosystems during the 1900s using NASA and other imagery, data, and models. We will report results of pilot analyses of climate change within the parks using VEMAP climate data and land use change using the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model.
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