Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Scott
Goetz, Woods Hole Research Center, sgoetz@whrc.org
(Presenting)
Claire
Jantz, Shippensburg University, cajant@ship.edu
Nancy
Bockstael, University of Maryland, nancyb@arec.umd.edu
Charles
Towe, University of Maryland, ctowe@arec.umd.edu
Land use change in developed countries largely takes the form of conversion of land from agriculture and forests to residential use. In the U.S. the spatial pattern of this conversion has tended to be one of increasingly fragmented, low density development, popularly called “sprawl.” Because it generally occurs in areas well outside urban centers, low density sprawl will generally be serviced by septic fields rather than sewage treatment plants, increasing per capita nutrient loadings and fecal coliform discharges into the aquatic environment. In addition, this spatial pattern can be expected to have consequences for carbon sequestration as vegetative cover is lost and for carbon emissions because of the higher level of vehicle miles traveled as a result of a dispersed population. The impact of development on the environment is dependent on both the spatial form development takes and on the type of land use it replaces. Our project maps, models and predicts spatial patterns of land use change in the central Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Our study provides an excellent example of modeling the spatial patterns of sprawl, because it is representative of a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. and has clear links to water quality in the Chesapeake Bay itself.
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