Forecasting right whale distributions from satellite and oceanographic data using dynamical models
Andrew
J
Pershing, University of Maine, andrew.pershing@maine.edu
(Presenting)
Nicholas
R
Record, University of Maine, nrecord@gmri.org
Bruce
C
Monger, Cornell University, bcm3@cornell.edu
Charles
A
Mayo, Provincetown Center for Coastal Studies, stormym33@pobox.com
Changsheng
Chen, SMAST University of Massachusetts, c1chen@umassd.edu
Daniel
E
Pendleton, Cornell University/University of Maine, dpendleton@gmri.org
Recovery of the North Atlantic right whale is limited by high mortality due to ship strikes and entanglements in fishing gear. All management options depend on knowing where whales are likely to be. We have developed a system that can produce useful forecasts of right whale distributions on their feeding grounds in the Gulf of Maine. Our system uses satellite-based measurements of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll to determine the developmental and reproductive rates of Calanus finmarchicus, the preferred prey of right whales. The rate information then drives a population dynamics model of Calanus finmarchicus that is embedded in a three dimensional circulation field. The first generation of this system produces realistic maps of right whale prey densities during the first half of the year. From the modeled prey densities, we can forecast when and how many whales will appear in the Great South Channel feeding ground. The forecasts can be produced weeks to months before the whales arrive. A second generation system is being evaluated as a tool to support NOAA’s aerial survey mission and to provide short-term forecasts of whale distributions for ships in Cape Cod Bay.
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