Recent Trends in the Indian Ocean Storm Environment and the Exceptional 2007 Cyclone Seasons
John
T.
Fasullo, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Dr., Boulder, CO 80305,USA, fasullo@ucar.edu
Joaquim
I.
Goes, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, ME, 04575, USA, ,, jgoes@bigelow.org
(Presenting)
Prasad
G.
Thoppil, Dept. Marine Sciences, Univ. of Southern Mississippi, Stennis Space Center, MS 39529, USA, thoppil@nrlssc.navy.mil
Helga
Gomes, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, ME, 04575, USA, ,, helgadorosario@gmail.com
Adnan
Al-Azri, Dept. of Marine Science and Fisheries, Sultan Qaboos University, Al-Khod, 123,Oman, adnazri@squ.edu.om
Sergio
de Rada, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS 39529, USA, derada@nrlssc.navy.mil
Fei
Chai, School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME, 04469, USA, fchai@maine.edu
John
Kindle, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS 39529, USA, kindle@nrlssc.navy.mil
Richard
Barber, Division of Systems Science and Policy, Duke University, Beaufort, NC, 28516, USA, rbarber@duke.edu
Southeast Asia hosts nearly half of the world&rsquos population and agricultural productivity and depends critically on the sustained rainfalls provided by its regional monsoon. With recent studies revealing trends in Eurasian snow cover linked to Arabian Sea surface forcing and biogeochemistry (Goes et al. 2005), and the time-frequency characteristics of monsoonal rainfall (e.g. Goswami et al. 2006) - both of which are projected to continue (Randall et al. 2007) - an understanding of regional trends and their manifestations (see abstracts of collaborators at this meeting) is critical to our preparedness for climate change.
Here the anomalous 2007 cyclone season, in which two supertyphoons occurred, and its relationship to regional dynamic and thermodynamic modulators of cyclogenesis are examined. An assessment of the annual cycle of storm activity and a case study of supertyphoon Gonu are also presented to assess their interaction with environmental forcings. Our analyses identify important roles for both dynamic (e.g. shear) and thermodynamic (e.g. CAPE) influences on cyclonic activity both for the mean seasonal cycle and 2007 anomalies. In the context of the 2007 season, however, thermodynamic influences appear to be fundamental to anomalous activity both in association with Gonu&rsquos intensification in June and the exceptionally active autumnal maximum. Our continuing studies, funded by NASA, are targeted at better understanding the causal links between these continuing environmental changes, storm intensities, and associated regional impacts.
NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Active Awards Represented by this Poster: