Towards an operational system to identify aggregations of foraging right whales using satellite data and models
Andrew
John
Pershing, University of Maine, apershing@gmri.org
(Presenting)
Bruce
C
Monger, Cornell University, bcm3@cornell.edu
Changsheng
Chen, University of Massachussetts Dartmouth, c1chen@UMassD.Edu
Christopher
W
Clark, Cornell University, cwc2@cornell.edu
Charles
A
Mayo, Provincetown Center for Coastal Studies, stormym33@pobox.com
The northern right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) is the most endangered marine mammal currently being protected under United States environmental regulations. The primary cause of human-induced mortality in this species is through entanglement with fishing gear and collisions with ships. Management of this species is the responsibility of NOAA Fisheries (National Marine Fisheries Service), and their management plan depends on knowing where whales are likely to be encountered. We are developing an operational system to forecast likely right whale locations in the Gulf of Maine. Our system uses satellite-derived sea surface temperature and chlorophyll to drive the population dynamics of the right whale's main copepod prey. The copepod model uses operational circulation fields derived from a high-resolution assimilative atmosphere-ocean circulation model that has recently been developed for the Gulf of Maine. The suite of models will synthesize information from a variety of earth science observations to provide high resolution estimates of right whale feeding areas. The circulation, zooplankton, and right whale products will be validated by comparing them with available observations. The performance of the complete system and its potential impact on NOAA’s right whale management will be assessed through a quantitative comparison of the high resolution right whale forecasts to the climatological right whale distributions that underlie the current management strategy.