Forecasting Rangeland Condition with GIS in Southeastern Idaho
Jerome
Theau, Idaho State University, theajero@isu.edu
(Presenting)
Keith
T
Weber, Idaho State University, webekeit@isu.edu
Past research at Idaho State University's GIS Training and Research Center has found that changes to the rangelands of southeastern Idaho can be attributed to three principal agents: 1) fire, 2) invasive weeds, and 3) urbanization. However, Idaho has experienced severe to exceptional drought conditions since April 2001. The potential for drought to change rangelands is significant. Furthermore, without specific and purposeful monitoring of rangeland condition throughout this time period, observed changes could be misinterpreted. These changes to Idaho’s rangeland landscape - regardless of the cause (drought, fire, invasive weeds, or urbanization) tend to degrade the health, productivity, and sustainability of rangelands and thereby pose problems for ranchers, range managers, and the economy of many western states. The purpose of this project is to use existing and new data (acquired both from the field and satellite remote sensing) to model rangeland sustainability relative to drought effects in southeastern Idaho at three study areas, the Big Desert (managed by the USDI BLM), the US Sheep Experiment Station (managed by the USDA ARS), and the O'Neal Ecological Reserve (managed by Idaho State University). This three-year project will 1) examine specific drought effects relative to livestock grazing, rest treatments and bare earth exposure, 2) model and monitor rangeland condition as a function of hydrologic cycling, 3) forecast rangeland condition using cellular-automata/ Markov chain analysis and artificial neural network techniques, and 4) continue and advance the GIS Training and Research Center’s public outreach program. We are presenting here an overview of the project including the methodological approach and preliminary results.