Changing Responses of Land Dynamics and Vulnerability to Flooding Under Policy and Environmental Change Near Poyang Lake China
Kathleen
Bergen, University of Michigan, kbergen@umich.edu
(Presenting)
Daniel
Brown, University of Michigan, danbrown@umich.edu, (PI)
Shuming
Bao, University of Michigan and Jiangxi Normal University, sbao@umich.edu
Tingting
Zhao, University of Michigan, tzhao@umich.edu
Qing
Tian, University of Michigan, qtian@umich.edu
RESEARCH STATEMENT: Poyang Lake, in Jiangxi Province, is the largest freshwater lake in China and is connected to the Yangtze River, the World’s third-longest river. The coupled system of land use and lake hydrology serves as an ideal case for studying issues of vulnerability and sustainability related to flooding and the land-use. The traditional land-use system in this region is adapted, but still vulnerable, to large seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in lake levels. However, average high-water levels have increased every decade 1951-2000. In 1998, Poyang Lake reached the highest levels ever recorded. This event resulted in failure of over ninety-seven levees and widespread economic and human catastrophe. Subsequently, the Chinese national government began a policy called Returning the Land to the Lake in parts of the area. APPROACH: We are developing (a) spatial-temporal datasets on flooded areas, demographics, land cover/use (including development and agriculture), (b) agent-based models to examine the effects on vulnerability to flooding of internal alterations to the coupled human-natural system (e.g., levee construction/destruction and population resettlement), as well as external ones (e.g., relaxation of constraints to movement, land ownership, development, and climatic changes), and (c) habitat models to evaluate the effects on the ecological system. ESE Components to be engaged include: SRTM, Landsat 5, Landsat 7, Orbview-1 and - 2. EXPECTED OUTCOMES: From this effort, we expect to be able to answer the following questions: How have human land-use responses and vulnerability to flooding the Poyang Lake area changed since before the 1998 flood? What are the possible roles of specific policy adjustments in those changes, including policies related directly to the LCLUC-flooding relationships and those external to the system and related to development? What is the impact on ecological services particularly waterfowl habitat? We expect that agent-based models, together with space-and ground-based observations, will be demonstrated useful in evaluating vulnerability.