Arellano, Avelino (Ave): University of Arizona (Project Lead)
Project Funding:
2011 - 2012
NRA: 2010 NASA: Science Definition Team for Carbon Monitoring System
Funded by NASA
Abstract:
This proposal is in response to the NASA ROSES 2010 A.39 solicitation. In particular, this is a request to participate on the development and evaluation of the NASA Integrated Emission/Uptake "Flux" pilot product as member a of the Carbon Monitoring System Science Definition Team (SDT). The NASA Center-led pilot study aims to provide global maps of surface carbon fluxes that are constrained by atmospheric observations of CO2 using data assimilation tools to combine information from observations and model output. A critical component of this study is the characterization of errors associated with a) prior estimates of carbon fluxes, b) modeling atmospheric transport, and c) atmospheric carbon observations. The ensemble approach proposed in the pilot study is an extremely useful application in characterizing these errors. However, intrinsic in this approach is the need to generate realistic and reasonable ensemble perturbations. As a member of the team, I propose to augment the activities of the pilot study by providing ensemble simulations derived from propagation of these errors within a system that mimics a numerical weather prediction with chemistry. Ensemble simulations of atmospheric CO2 and CO (and preselected CO2 and CO tagged tracers) will be generated and analyzed using perturbed meteorology and/or surface fluxes in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). In conjunction with CO2, relatively well-observed species like CO offers a unique opportunity to investigate errors associated with modeling constituent transport. This work is an extension of current ensemble DA capabilities of CESM's Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) (e.g. joint assimilation of MOPITT CO and meteorological observations by Arellano et al., 2010 and Arellano et al., 2007). Results will be provided as independent model data to SDT and the pilot study production team. Expertise in ensemble data assimilation, inverse modeling of CO sources (Arellano et al., 2004; Arellano and Hess, 2006) and use of satellite data (Edwards et al., 2009) will be provided during the course of the pilot study.
Publications:
Silva, S. J., Arellano, A. F., Worden, H. M. 2013. Toward anthropogenic combustion emission constraints from space-based analysis of urban CO
2
/CO sensitivity. Geophysical Research Letters. 40(18), 4971-4976. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50954
More details may be found in the following project profile(s):
