Project Funding: 2014 - 2017

NRA: 2012 NASA: Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science   

Funded by NASA

Abstract:
Food production and water scarcity are long-standing issues in Africa, exacerbated by periodic droughts and floods. As the patterns of droughts and floods evolve under a changing climate system, it is critical that we improve our understanding of what drives hydro-climatic extremes, what impacts they have on human systems, and to what degree their impacts can be buffered by effective prediction systems. The development of effective strategies to adapt to changes in the character of droughts and floods in Africa will rely on improved seasonal prediction systems that are robust to an evolving climate baseline and can be integrated into disaster preparedness and response. Many efforts have been made to build models to improve seasonal forecasts in the Greater Horn of Africa region (GHA) using satellite and climate data, but these efforts and models must be improved and translated into future conditions under evolving climate conditions. This has considerable social significance, but is challenged by the nature of climate predictability and the adaptability of coupled natural and human systems facing exposure to climate extremes. Yet little is known about their value, their limitations or the most appropriate way of making and using predictions in an evolving climate. The overarching goal of this project, which addresses the theme Understanding Earth system Vulnerabilities to Climate Extremes, is to understand and, where possible, extend the predictive time horizons for extreme drought and flood in the GHA given the challenges of an evolving climate baseline and diverse information needs to support adaptation strategies. To reach this goal, the project will have four primary objectives: 1) Characterize and explain large-scale drivers in the ocean-atmosphere-land system associated with years of extreme flood or drought in the GHA. 2) Evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes. 3) Apply seasonal forecast systems to prediction of socially relevant impacts on crops, flood risk, and economic outcomes, and assess the value of these predictions to decision makers. 4) Evaluate the robustness of seasonal prediction systems to evolving climate conditions. This project will be led by the National Drought Mitigation Center, which has extensive experience in developing and implementing drought monitoring tools at national and international levels. Collaborators in this proposal that are also actively working in this region include the U.S. Geological Survey Famine Early Warning Systems Network, Johns Hopkins University, Drexel University, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, NASA, and GHA local experts. In addition, it will include active engagement of end users in various sectors, university researchers, and extension agents in GHA through workshops and/or webinars. This project will improve and implement new and existing climate- and remote sensing-based agricultural, meteorological, and hydrologic drought and flood monitoring products (or indicators) that can enhance the preparedness for extreme climate events and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the GHA. In meeting our goal and objectives, we will advance understanding of the drivers of hydro-climatic extremes in the GHA, characterize the predictability of the system with respect to stakeholder information needs, and leverage existing and new satellite-based sensors and models to establish an improved early warning system that is robust to a changing climate.

Publications:

Ayehu, G. T., Tadesse, T., Gessesse, B., Dinku, T. 2018. Validation of new satellite rainfall products over the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques. 11(4), 1921-1936. DOI: 10.5194/amt-11-1921-2018

Bayissa, Y., Tadesse, T., Demisse, G., Shiferaw, A. 2017. Evaluation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates and Application to Monitor Meteorological Drought for the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Remote Sensing. 9(7), 669. DOI: 10.3390/rs9070669

Demisse, G. B., Tadesse, T., Bayissa, Y., Atnafu, S., Argaw, M., Nedaw, D. 2018. Vegetation condition prediction for drought monitoring in pastoralist areas: a case study in Ethiopia. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 39(14), 4599-4615. DOI: 10.1080/01431161.2017.1421797

Demisse, G., Tadesse, T., Atnafu, S., Hill, S., Wardlow, B., Bayissa, Y., Shiferaw, A. 2017. Information Mining from Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study on Drought Predictions. Information. 8(3), 79. DOI: 10.3390/info8030079

Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S., Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., Michaelsen, J. 2015. The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations--a new environmental record for monitoring extremes. Scientific Data. 2(1). DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2015.66

Funk, C., Shukla, S., Hoell, A., Livneh, B. 2016. Assessing the Contributions of East African and West Pacific Warming to the 2014 Boreal Spring East African Drought. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 96(12), S77-S82. DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-15-00106.1

Satti, S., Zaitchik, B. F., Badr, H. S., Tadesse, T. 2017. Enhancing Dynamical Seasonal Predictions through Objective Regionalization. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 56(5), 1431-1442. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0192.1

Shiferaw, A., Tadesse, T., Rowe, C., Oglesby, R. 2018. Precipitation Extremes in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa. Atmosphere. 9(3), 112. DOI: 10.3390/atmos9030112

Tadesse, T., Bathke, D., Wall, N., Petr, J., Haigh, T. 2015. Participatory Research Workshop on Seasonal Prediction of Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 96(8), ES139-ES142. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00280.1

Tadesse, T., Senay, G. B., Berhan, G., Regassa, T., Beyene, S. 2015. Evaluating a satellite-based seasonal evapotranspiration product and identifying its relationship with other satellite-derived products and crop yield: A case study for Ethiopia. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. 40, 39-54. DOI: 10.1016/j.jag.2015.03.006

More details may be found in the following project profile(s):

• NASA Terrestrial Ecology (TE) Project Profile