Waring, Richard (Dick): Oregon State University (Project Lead)
Project Funding:
2011 - 2016
NRA: 2010 NASA: Climate and Biological Response: Research and Applications
Funded by NASA
Abstract:
Fly across the western United States and Canada and you will be struck by the size of areas where forests are dying or are aflame. Over the last 30 years, the climate in the West has become progressively warmer and drier but the implications of these changes on vegetation are not well understood. We have developed physiologically-based models that accurately predict the presence of more than a dozen tree species on thousands of field survey plots distributed across the Pacific Northwest Region of North America, when calibrated using climatic records for the period 1950-1975. When the models are run with more recent climatic data, they indicate large areas are no longer suitable for many species, and the future, based on climatic projections through the rest of this century, look even bleaker. Although satellite-borne instruments can help us quantify annual changes in forest cover, they are unable to explain why the changes are occurring or the extent that they may continue. The forested areas that satellites tell us were recently disturbed, however, correlate very well with the areas predicted as stressed with our models.
In this grant proposal, we request support to extend the approach used in the Pacific Northwest to the entire Rocky Mountain West, including parts of the Canadian providences of Alberta and Saskatchewan where drought is acknowledged to be causing shifts in the distribution of native tree species. We propose to increase the number of species modeled to twenty-five, which will include the most widely observed dying species: piñon pine, lodgepole pine, and aspen. We will compare model predictions of species mortality and migration outside of their historical ranges using ground-based observations acquired by collaborators throughout western North America.
The benefits to NASA of this proposed research are that we can offer an explanation as to why species may be dying, use a disturbance index developed from data acquired with NASAs MODIS instrument to test model predictions of where forests are under stress, and enlist collaborators to visit sites where climate-driven models suggest changes in forest composition are most likely to be observed. We propose to share the results of the research with representatives of the U.S. Forest Service, NASA Ames Research Center, the National Park Service, the Department of Energy, the Nature Conservancy as well as with colleagues at participating universities.
Publications:
Coops, N., Waring, R., Plowright, A., Lee, J., Dilts, T. 2016. Using Remotely-Sensed Land Cover and Distribution Modeling to Estimate Tree Species Migration in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America. Remote Sensing. 8(1), 65. DOI: 10.3390/rs8010065
Mathys, A. S., Coops, N. C., Simard, S. W., Waring, R. H., Aitken, S. N. 2018. Diverging distribution of seedlings and mature trees reflects recent climate change in British Columbia. Ecological Modelling. 384, 145-153. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.06.008
Smettem, K. R. J., Waring, R. H., Callow, J. N., Wilson, M., Mu, Q. 2013. Satellite-derived estimates of forest leaf area index in southwest Western Australia are not tightly coupled to interannual variations in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate. Global Change Biology. 19(8), 2401-2412. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12223
Waring, R. H., Coops, N. C. 2015. Predicting large wildfires across western North America by modeling seasonal variation in soil water balance. Climatic Change. 135(2), 325-339. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1569-x
More details may be found in the following project profile(s):
