Project Funding: 2011 - 2013

NRA: 2010 NASA: Climate and Biological Response: Research and Applications   

Funded by NASA

Abstract:
Ecosystems are in a state of flux due to changing climate. Informed management of species populations and the habitats upon which we all depend confronts us with tremendous and unfamiliar challenges. Migratory species are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts because critical life-history events track environmental conditions across broad regions. Both avian and large mammal migrants are at risk of significant demographic consequences as climatic conditions deviate from historic norms. Making successful management decisions, therefore, will require a detailed understanding of the complex spatial and temporal relationship between climatic, phenological, and landscape conditions alongside critical life history events. To gain such an understanding, managers require sophisticated yet user-friendly analytical tools and predictive models, as well as datasets that are both spatially-explicit and temporally dynamic such as those provided by remotely sensed data. Thus, the overriding goal of our Type B, Applications proposal is to integrate NASA Earth Science data and data products (including NASA data-driven ecosystem models) into a generalized framework of Decision Support Tools (DSTs) to provide enhanced capabilities for ecosystem and water resource management decisions affecting migratory vertebrate populations. This framework, referred to as the EAGLE (Ecosystem Assessment, Geospatial analysis, and Landscape Evaluation) system, is a response to the input of numerous State and Federal agencies, universities and NGOs. Within EAGLE we link basic science to management decisions by addressing two coupled science application questions (1) How can we predict where migratory species will move during critical life-history stages in response to climate change? (2) What are the demographic consequences of these shifts and movements? To answer these questions and develop a functioning ecosystem monitoring, analysis, and prediction system we build upon the recent cooperative work of our assembled expert team of investigators/collaborators to fulfill three objectives: (1) Measure, monitor, and analyze the ecological conditions within the species, migration ranges for use in conservation decision-making and predictive modeling by capitalizing on existing, enhanced, and new NASA data products and NASA-data model outputs. (2) Implement population analyses and predictive modeling of (a) habitat movements (distribution) (b) population vital rates for understanding the effects of climate and climate-related environmental impacts on migrating species. Two of the most extensive, comprehensive, long-term annual wildlife survey efforts in the world “elk in Yellowstone and mallards in the central flyway”are selected for initial analysis and development of the EAGLE system. (3) Establish a user-friendly, computer-based (web and PC) set of decision-support tools to create species forecasts under habitat what-if-scenarios and IPCC down-scaled climate projections in a user-friendly ArcGIS environment. Effective adaptation strategies for trust species will require the integration of expert knowledge with accessible state-of-the-art technologies. As such we provide scientists as well as practitioners a standardized, transparent, and defensible set of tools to achieve the management end point of recovering migratory populations while sustaining their habitats. We provide ecological forecasts to assess climate impacts and provide managers the ability to consider strategic habitat conservation, substituting critical space for an uncertain future.

Publications:

Chiyo, P. I., Wilson, J. W., Archie, E. A., Lee, P. C., Moss, C. J., Alberts, S. C. 2014. The influence of forage, protected areas, and mating prospects on grouping patterns of male elephants. Behavioral Ecology. 25(6), 1494-1504. DOI: 10.1093/beheco/aru152

J. Weiss, D., Gibson, K., Sojka, C., W. Sheldon, J., L. Crabtree, R. 2012. Customized Online Aggregation & Summarization Tool for Environmental Rasters (COASTER). Journal of Geographic Information System. 04(06), 530-541. DOI: 10.4236/jgis.2012.46058

Meigs, G. 2016. Wildfire likelihood and severity following bark beetle and defoliator outbreaks in Pacific Northwest forests. 2016 International Congress of Entomology. DOI: 10.1603/ice.2016.93530

Meigs, G. W., Campbell, J. L., Zald, H. S. J., Bailey, J. D., Shaw, D. C., Kennedy, R. E. 2015. Does wildfire likelihood increase following insect outbreaks in conifer forests? Ecosphere. 6(7), art118. DOI: 10.1890/es15-00037.1

Meigs, G. W., Kennedy, R. E., Gray, A. N., Gregory, M. J. 2015. Spatiotemporal dynamics of recent mountain pine beetle and western spruce budworm outbreaks across the Pacific Northwest Region, USA. Forest Ecology and Management. 339, 71-86. DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2014.11.030

Meigs, G. W., Zald, H. S. J., Campbell, J. L., Keeton, W. S., Kennedy, R. E. 2016. Do insect outbreaks reduce the severity of subsequent forest fires? Environmental Research Letters. 11(4), 045008. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/045008

Scantlebury, D. M., Mills, M. G. L., Wilson, R. P., Wilson, J. W., Mills, M. E. J., Durant, S. M., Bennett, N. C., Bradford, P., Marks, N. J., Speakman, J. R. 2014. Flexible energetics of cheetah hunting strategies provide resistance against kleptoparasitism. Science. 346(6205), 79-81. DOI: 10.1126/science.1256424

More details may be found in the following project profile(s):

• NASA Biological Diversity & Ecological Conservation (BDEC) Project Profile