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Climate change and its impact on the ecosystem of the Arabian Sea
Project Funding: 2007 - 2010
NRA: 2006 NASA: Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science
Funded by NASA
Abstract:I. SUMMARY The recent trend of declining winter and spring snow cover due to warming of the Eurasian landmass is causing a land-ocean thermal gradient that is particularly favorable to stronger southwest (summer) monsoonal winds (Goes et al., 2005). Since 1997, sea surface winds have been strengthening in the western Arabian Sea. This escalation in the intensity of summer monsoonal winds accompanied by enhanced upwelling along the coasts of Somalia and Oman, and a >350% increase in average summer time phytoplankton biomass in the western Arabian Sea, raises the intriguing possibility that the current warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere is making the Arabian Sea more productive. This three-year data (ship and satellite) analysis and regional physical-biological modelling project is aimed at probing remote and local controls on regional circulation and phytoplankton productivity and marine living resources in the Arabian Sea as they relate to climate change. In order to achieve our goals, we have put together an international research team consisting of oceanographers (physical, chemical and biological), atmospheric and fisheries scientists who will work together to: (1) Examine the dominant scales of coupling between atmospheric forcing (snow cover, land and sea radiation budgets, wind fields) and biological oceanographic responses (ocean circulation, mixed layer physics and stratification evolution, phytoplankton blooms). (2) Determine how large-scale climatic events (Eurasian Warming, Indian Ocean Dipole, El-Niño) contribute to long-term variability in biological productivity. (3) Develop a coupled physical-biological model capable of simulating climate mediated changes in the circulation of the Arabian Sea and predicting the response of the Arabian Sea ecosystem and its living marine resources to climate change on seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales. Our activities fall under NASA’s Earth Observing System Interdisciplinary Science (EOS/IDS) Program Subelement 4: Coupled Carbon-Climate Modeling which emphasizes the use of models to identify, quantify and understand the coupling and feedbacks between physical and biogeochemical systems. By integrating NASA's observational capabilities with innovative modelling, we aim to provide answers to the following: (1) How is the ecosystem of the Arabian Sea and its carbon cycle in the Arabian Sea responding to global environmental changes? (2) How will the carbon cycle dynamics in the Arabian Sea change in the future as multiple climate change factors, including atmospheric temperature and wind forcings evolve over time? (3) How can predictions of climate variability and change in the Arabian Sea be improved? Our proposed research program strongly supports NASA’s Strategic Science Outcome Sub-Goal 3A: "Study Earth From Space to Advance Scientific Understanding and Meet Societal Needs"
Publications:
Goes, J. I., Gomes, H. D. R. 2016. An Ecosystem in Transition: The Emergence of Mixotrophy in the Arabian Sea in: Aquatic Microbial Ecology and Biogeochemistry: A Dual Perspective. Springer International Publishing, 155-170. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-30259-1_13
2011 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Poster(s)
2008 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Posters
More details may be found in the following project profile(s):