Doney, Scott: University of Virginia (Project Lead)
Project Funding:
2007 - 2010
NRA: 2006 NASA: Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science
Funded by NASA
Abstract:
The effectiveness of the ocean sink for fossil fuel CO2 is projected to decrease over the next centuries under a warmer climate. Projecting the co-evolution of CO2 and climate change must perforce employ coupled carbon-climate models; yet uncertainties in carbon processes hamper these projections. In particular, the responses of ocean ecology and biogeochemistry to global change are multi-faceted and poorly characterized; and contrasting hypotheses about its role have not been tested especially in the earth system framework. Furthermore, non-linear interactions among altered physics, ocean ecology, and changes in atmospheric dust/iron deposition need to be included. Here we propose three tasks to improve our predictive understanding of ocean biological feedbacks on climate change:
Use satellite remote sensing data (SeaWiFs/MODIS/MISR) and in situ data as vital constraints on modeled dust deposition and ocean biogeochemical response over the historical record (1970s-present) using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM-3) component models driven by reanalysis winds.
Assess the regional and global ocean carbon-climate feedbacks using an ensemble of historical simulations and observations for the 20th century. The 20th century fully coupled CCSM-3 simulations will include key external forcings (e.g., sun and volcanoes) and anthropogenic forcings (e.g., fossil fuel CO2 emissions; sulfate aerosols; land-use). Our focus will be on improving the model’s ability to capture the observed variation across multiple time-scales of ecological and biogeochemical metrics (e.g., ocean color and physiological measures from SeaWiFS/MODIS) to changes in ocean physics and dust deposition.
Predict 21st century climate and carbon-climate feedbacks for a suite of radiative forcings, based on the improved fully coupled CCSM-3. We will develop a new series of sensitivity and budget metrics for ocean ecological-biogeochemical processes. The study will advance our understanding about the role of the ocean biological pump in accelerating or ameliorating global climate change.
2011 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop Poster(s)
- Incorporating Ocean Dynamics into a Global Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model
-- (Scott Doney, Keith Moore, Keith Lindsay, Ivan Lima, Natalie Mahowald, Matt Long)
[abstract]
[poster]
More details may be found in the following project profile(s):
