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Synergistic impacts of population growth, urbanization, and climate change on watersheds and coastal ecology of the northeastern United States

Raymond Najjar, The Pennsylvania State University, rgn1@psu.edu (Presenter)
Marjorie Friedrichs, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, marjy@vims.edu
Eileen Hofmann, Old Dominion University, hofmann@ccpo.odu.edu
Kimberly Hyde, NOAA, kimberly.hyde@noaa.gov
Antonio Mannino, NASA GSFC, antonio.mannino@nasa.gov
Hanqin Tian, Auburn University, tianhan@auburn.edu
John Wilkin, Rutgers University, wilkin@marine.rutgers.edu
Sergio Signorini, NASA GSFC, sergio.signorini@nasa.gov

The overall goal of this project is to quantify the impacts of human population growth and associated land-use changes on the biogeochemistry and ecology of the Chesapeake and Delaware estuaries and the adjacent continental shelf waters. Our focus will be on these particular estuaries, as they are the most vulnerable in the U.S. because of the high population density in their watersheds and the high degree of climate change they are experiencing, including increases in temperature, sea level, precipitation, and precipitation intensity. To achieve this goal we will refine and link a suite of models including a terrestrial ecosystem model for the watersheds, a coupled biogeochemical-oxygen-circulation model with estuarine grids nested in a shelf model, and shellfish models for both Eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica) and Atlantic surfclams (Spisula solidissima). We have already calibrated and evaluated these models individually with remote sensing products and historical in situ data. Here we will improve and more fully evaluate the linked modeling system through the analysis of satellite remote sensing products, including phytoplankton functional types, optical properties, and organic carbon cycling. Simulations will extend from the 1950s to the present, allowing us to identify how impacts of land-use changes and climate changes on coastal ecological processes have varied over the past 60 years. The integrated modeling system will be used to generate a core “all processes” simulation, as well as simulations representing: (1) climate only, including historical climate variability/change while keeping other variables unchanged since the 1950s; (2) land cover change and management practices only, including effects of land conversions while detrending the climate forcing and fixing other input data at 1950s values; and (3) nitrogen input only, including the changing nitrogen fertilization in cropland and nitrogen deposition impacts, while assuming that climate and land-use patterns are held constant at 1950s values. The analysis of these four simulations will allow us to satisfy our overall objective, as well as specific objectives concerning the impacts of human activity in the watershed on the riverine delivery to the coast, phytoplankton speciation, hypoxia, and shellfish. This project has just begun and hence initial results will presented.

Presentation Type:  Poster

Session:  Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Posters   (Mon 1:30 PM)

Associated Project(s): 

  • Friedrichs, Marjy: Impacts of Changing Climate and Land Use on Carbon Cycling and Budgets of the Coastal Ocean Margin: Observations, Analysis, and Modeling ...details
  • Friedrichs, Marjy: U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling (USECoS): Modeling, Data Assimilation and Analysis ...details
  • Hofmann, Eileen: Impacts of Changing Climate and Land Use on Carbon Cycling and Budgets of the Coastal Ocean Margin: Observations, Analysis, and Modeling ...details
  • Hofmann, Eileen: U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling (USECoS): Modeling, Data Assimilation and Analysis ...details
  • Related Activity: Related Activity or Previously Funded CC&E Activity not listed ...details

Poster Location ID: 171

 


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