Project Funding: 2017 - 2021

NRA: 2016 NASA: Ecological Forecasting   

Funded by NASA

Abstract:
The goal of the proposed research is to develop better models of coral disease outbreak risk across the western tropical Pacific Ocean and embed these improved forecasts into the NOAA Coral Reef Watch decision support system (DSS). The current DSS was developed based on ~50 km SST data, and it assesses coral disease risk for the Great Barrier Reef and the Hawaiian archipelago using (i) a Seasonal Outlook from winter-time conditions that is (ii) updated in near real-time through the summer period. The ecological models used in the experimental disease risk DSS were derived by assessing the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and a single coral disease, Acropora white syndrome, on the Great Barrier Reef. We propose to improve these disease forecasts by (1) increasing the spatial resolution of SST-based predictions tools to 5 km, through application of NASA/NOAA satellite products, and expanding the application to several different coral diseases, host species and regions; (2) incorporating Short-Term Forecasts (four-month projections) of SST to augment the post-winter risk; (3) incorporating ocean color data from NASA/NOAA satellite products into the models, if robust relationships are found; and (4) undertaking additional coral disease observations, using targeted surveys and innovative bioassays that provide measurements with enhanced sensitivity. The disease forecasting models will be developed for locations in the western tropical Pacific Ocean that have existing long-term (~decade-long) observations of coral disease (i.e., Hawaii, Australia, US affiliated Pacific Islands), but the approach could subsequently be replicated in other coral reef regions. The proposed research addresses several goals of the Earth Science Research Program by developing a system to better predict changes in coral health in the face of ongoing climate change, and enabling researchers, managers and the public to use these forecasting models to better understand and respond to future disease outbreaks. This project specifically addresses the ROSES 2016 research announcement A.46 section 3.1.3, Managing Marine Ecosystems in a Time of Changing Climate through Better Forecasts, by using time series of biological observations (14 years of coral health surveys, physiological data from bioassays) and time series of climate observations (e.g., sea surface temperature anomalies, chlorophyll-a concentrations) to develop an ecological modeling framework that predicts coral disease risk based on ongoing satellite-derived inputs and accounts for uncertainties in climate-disease relationships and uncertainties in the estimates of disease risk.

Publications:

Caldwell, J. M., Aeby, G., Heron, S. F., Donahue, M. J. 2020. Case-control design identifies ecological drivers of endemic coral diseases. Scientific Reports. 10(1). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-59688-8

Caldwell, J. M., Aeby, G., Heron, S. F., Donahue, M. J. Case-control design identifies ecological drivers of endemic coral diseases DOI: 10.1101/662320

Caldwell, J. M., de Lara-Tuprio, E., Teng, T. R., Estuar, M. R. J. E., Sarmiento, R. F. R., Abayawardana, M., Leong, R. N. F., Gray, R. T., Wood, J. G., Le, L., McBryde, E. S., Ragonnet, R., Trauer, J. M. 2021. Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific. 14, 100211. DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100211

Geiger, E. F., Heron, S. F., Hernandez, W. J., Caldwell, J. M., Falinski, K., Callender, T., Greene, A. L., Liu, G., De La Cour, J. L., Armstrong, R. A., Donahue, M. J., Eakin, C. M. 2021. Optimal Spatiotemporal Scales to Aggregate Satellite Ocean Color Data for Nearshore Reefs and Tropical Coastal Waters: Two Case Studies. Frontiers in Marine Science. 8. DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.643302

Greene, A., Donahue, M. J., Caldwell, J. M., Heron, S. F., Geiger, E., Raymundo, L. J. 2020. Coral Disease Time Series Highlight Size-Dependent Risk and Other Drivers of White Syndrome in a Multi-Species Model. Frontiers in Marine Science. 7. DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2020.601469

Greene, A., Forsman, Z., Toonen, R. J., Donahue, M. J. 2020. CoralCam: A flexible, low-cost ecological monitoring platform. HardwareX. 7, e00089. DOI: 10.1016/j.ohx.2019.e00089

Greene, A., Leggat, W., Donahue, M. J., Raymundo, L. J., Caldwell, J. M., Moriarty, T., Heron, S. F., Ainsworth, T. D. 2020. Complementary sampling methods for coral histology, metabolomics and microbiome. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 11(9), 1012-1020. DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.13431

Greene, A., Leggat, W., Donahue, M., Raymundo, L., Caldwell, J., Moriarty, T., Heron, S., Ainsworth, T. 2020. Author response for "Complementary sampling methods for coral histology, metabolomics, and microbiome" DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13431/v2/response1

Jayasundara, P., Peariasamy, K. M., Law, K. B., Abd Rahim, K. N. K., Lee, S. W., Ghazali, I. M. M., Abayawardana, M., Le, L., Khalaf, R. K., Razali, K., Le, X., Chong, Z. L., McBryde, E. S., Meehan, M. T., Caldwell, J. M., Ragonnet, R., Trauer, J. M. 2021. Sustaining effective COVID-19 control in Malaysia through large-scale vaccination. Epidemics. 37, 100517. DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100517

McBryde, E. S., Meehan, M. T., Caldwell, J. M., Adekunle, A. I., Ogunlade, S. T., Kuddus, M. A., Ragonnet, R., Jayasundara, P., Trauer, J. M., Cope, R. C. 2021. Modelling direct and herd protection effects of vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Australia. Medical Journal of Australia. 215(9), 427-432. DOI: 10.5694/mja2.51263

Shore, A., Caldwell, J. M. 2019. Modes of coral disease transmission: how do diseases spread between individuals and among populations? Marine Biology. 166(4). DOI: 10.1007/s00227-019-3490-8

Shore, A., Caldwell, J. M. 2019. Modes of coral disease transmission: how do diseases spread between individuals and among populations? Marine Biology. 166(4). DOI: 10.1007/s00227-019-3490-8

Skelton, J., Rodgers, C., Ellis, L., Lyles, A. 2014. Rubrics and Evaluations. i-manager's Journal on School Educational Technology. 9(4), 7-13. DOI: 10.26634/jsch.9.4.2708

Sutherland, K., Griffin, A., Park, A., Porter, J., Heron, S., Eakin, C., Berry, B., Kemp, D., Kemp, K., Lipp, E., Wares, J. 2023. Twenty-year record of white pox disease in the Florida Keys: importance of environmental risk factors as drivers of coral health. Diseases of Aquatic Organisms. 154, 15-31. DOI: 10.3354/dao03727

Sutherland, K., Griffin, A., Park, A., Porter, J., Heron, S., Eakin, C., Berry, B., Kemp, D., Kemp, K., Lipp, E., Wares, J. 2023. Twenty-year record of white pox disease in the Florida Keys: importance of environmental risk factors as drivers of coral health. Diseases of Aquatic Organisms. 154, 15-31. DOI: 10.3354/dao03727

More details may be found in the following project profile(s):

• NASA Biological Diversity & Ecological Conservation (BDEC) Project Profile