Dutkiewicz, Stephanie: MIT (Project Lead)
Project Funding:
2016 - 2019
NRA: 2015 NASA: Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry
Funded by NASA
Abstract:
We seek to understand pathways in which ecosystems are subject to change and to quantify states of ecological vulnerability. Ocean color imagery provides an unprecedented view of the surface ocean but lacks depth information and details of community composition and biodiversity. Depth distributions of communities are important in ecological structuring and functioning. Species composition and biodiversity will directly affect ecosystem vulnerability.
We propose to use existing satellite measurements, particularly ocean color, in situ datasets, along with numerical model output and theory to address spatial, temporal and depth-dependent changes to marine ecosystems with a focus on how best to detect these changes and characterize vulnerability using satellite measurements. Specifically we ask,
o How have ecosystems changed over the last few decades and how will they continue to change in a future warming world, and how well can we capture these changes from
satellite measurements?
o How interconnected are deep and surface communities, do they have differing levels of
vulnerability, and how are they changing in relation to each other?
o What are the regional variations in vulnerability of the marine ecosystems?
o How can we best determine and quantify ecological vulnerability metrics using a
combination of ocean color imagery and a numerical model?
We propose a unique and integrative project utilizing the ecosystem modeling skills of the group at MIT and the skills at using ocean color and in situ measurements from the group at MTU. We will address the questions posed above with a study that will have the following components:
1) Utilize in situ observations, satellite imagery and model output to determine how best to infer deep phytoplankton communities from ocean color and physical imagery.
2) Use model output and theoretical understanding to construct three-dimensional
ecologically distinct regions (“ecoregions―), and confirm with in situ observations.
3) Construct a framework using a combination of physical and optical properties (especially satellite measurements) that can detect the three dimensional ecoregions from remotely.
4) Explore how well satellite measurement will be able to captures changes in communities at the surface and depth on seasonal, interannual and decadal timescales, and for 21st Century scenarios using techniques constructed in (1) - (3)
5) Develop vulnerability metrics that are linked to satellite measurement, particularly using the movement of ecoregion boundaries and shifts in community structures.
6) Establish a benchmark of environmental change and vulnerability for decades (1997 – present) prior to the launch of PACE; Explore how the increase in spectral resolution
anticipated for the PACE mission will improve the ability to monitor changes relative to
current and historic ocean color instruments
The proposed research is directly aimed at preparing scientifically for new ocean measurements from the PACE mission while growing understanding of vulnerabilities and response of ocean ecosystems to environmental change. By specifically planning to produce vulnerability metrics it meets the goal to better inform monitoring, management, and decision and policy makers. A graduate student will be provided a highly interdisciplinary environment gaining both ocean color and numerical model expertise.
More details may be found in the following project profile(s):
