Davis, Curtiss: Oregon State University (Project Lead)
Project Funding:
2014 - 2016
NRA: 2012 NASA: Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science
Funded by NASA
Abstract:
One challenge facing Earth system science is to understand and quantify the impacts and feedbacks of human influences on rivers and estuaries and coastal zone biology and ecology. This collective system has important interplay with human population and economics, especially in regions of high population density like the San Francisco Bay and Delta Ecosystem (SFE).
Our goal is to put in place an approach and modeling framework for the scientific basis of an ecosystem approach to the stewardship of the SFE including freshwater and marine resources within the SFE and adjacent ocean ecosystems. This will combine four components: (1) satellite observations, (MODIS, MERIS, HICO on the international space station, LDCM-OLI and in the future Sentinel-3 OLCI); (2) field observations (nutrients, phytoplankton, suspended sediments, CDOM and optical properties); (3) the CoSiNE ecological model integrated with (4) a SELFE hydrological model of SFE. This project builds upon long established remote sensing and field programs in the SFE and on the physical and biological models of the SFE being developed as part of the current NASA Interdisciplinary Science SESAME project to understand and predict variations in central California salmon populations.
Our measurements and models will encompass the dynamics of the SFE in order to determine how increasing population density and demand for fresh water can affect this watershed including human impacts from its upper reaches to the continental shelf. We will explicitly include water diversion and flow management, nutrient inputs from sewage plants and other sources and the effects of the mix of nutrients on the phytoplankton populations in the SFE. Our team is led by experts experienced in satellite remote sensing of estuaries (C. Davis, and N. Tufillaro), field observations in SFE/Delta (R. Dugdale, F. Wilkerson and A. Parker), ecosystem modeling (F. Chai and H. Xue) and hydrologic modeling of the SFE (Y. Chao). We propose a three year research program that includes remote sensing and field experiments focused on sewage diversions, blooms and other events in the SFE. Model development and testing will continue in parallel to the field work. The models will be validated with 10 years of satellite and in situ data. Modeling of the field data and experimental results for the events sampled will validate

the dynamic response of the models to changing conditions. Error analysis and model sensitivity analysis will be conducted to assess the utility of the models for projecting future conditions resulting from climate variability, water diversions, increased wetland area and changes in nutrient inputs. We will use the data and model results to assess the current state of SFE and specifically address issues associated with these key drivers and potential changes to those drivers: 1) fresh water supply and future diversions, including effects of wet and dry years; 2) nutrient supply and changes in nutrient ratios from waste water treatment plants; 3) including the effects of oligotrophication cause by excess ammonium; 4) enhancing the area of marshes as remediation for increased water diversions. Throughout we will share our data, model results and insights with SFE agency leaders responsible for managing this complex system.
More details may be found in the following project profile(s):
